原始寂静：
V1(BY: 为G拼了) 一店铺在增加了一项服务后(具体啥忘记了)，今年的利润增加了20%，于是就得出结论顾客主要看中the convenience afforded by the one-stop shop,于是打算增设clothing department，并且还打算继续增设部门和服务以此获得更高的利润
原题：
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂销售部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的几年中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。
参考思路：
1. 无因果联系：文章并没有说药剂销售部分与总销售额的因果关系
2. False analogy：药剂销售与汽车配件、维修店类比
3. All things are equal : 今年的销售增加纵向错误类比今后两年销量会增加
4. Gratuitous assumption：无端假设销售额增加是因为顾客关注一次性购物便利
参考范文：
The management of the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and services is the surest way to increase profits over the next couple of years. They are led to this conclusion because of a 20 percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a pharmacy section to the grocery store. On the basis of this experience, they concluded that the convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers. The management’s argument is faulty in several respects.
In the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section. However, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales. But the mere fact that the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude that it was responsible for the increase. Many other factors could bring about this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section.
In the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding additional departments will increase sales even further. It is quite possible that the addition of the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity. The additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store. In other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store.
In conclusion, the management’s argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the increase in total sales. It must also show that there are no exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions.
26.(3次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 261727223) An e-mail from the owner of Food For XXXXXX,(同位语介绍公司),to the manager.
先说一个specialized in cooking的bookstore的profits 很steady since they…………(他们的一个措施，感觉不是重心)。但是，owner说major bookstore & internet bookstore有个strategy很给力，就是一个定价策略：给best-seller打折，吸引更多顾客，提高total sales，最后提高profits。然后owner开始YY说，如果我们能学习这个策略我们能卖更多的书，能赚更多的profits。
考古：
V1. 说的是一个当地的书店，提供一些什么COOKING之类的服务，取得了成功。 过去几年来利润都一直稳定着。所以这个书店提出来要学习INTERNET BOOKSTORE 或者 chain bookstores 那样零利润吸引顾客。这个LOCAL 书店应该要discount，同时需要取消掉原来的cooking来弥补这个discount造成的损失
V2. jj上有，是那个本地书店学习大书店和网络书店策略的那个
V3. 是说一个什么卖书的以前卖食谱，后来又搞了个什么wine and cheese bar，说有稳定的profit，然后就想引进畅销书和网上售书什么什么的，后面没很读懂，意思是说可以赚更多钱吧;
V4. 说的是一个专卖cookbook的书店近几年的profit都很稳定，所以想continue grow.于是，想借助Internet bookseller的strategy去发展。要deeply discount best-sell books，还要减少什么的discount(忘了，确切的说是我不认识那个词……汗)还要取消免费的什么东西。
V5. 一个manager 有个cooking book公司在食谱书店通过找当地名厨在现场做demonstration 和在附近的公司休息室也不食堂的发放免费cheese什么的提高了profit。所以他们认为雇佣那些特有经验的优秀销售在卖其他书的书店和网络营销也将会提高收益。
参考思路：
1. 别人的成功方法不一定适用于自己
2. 取消cooking不一定能弥补得了discount的损失
3. 还有别的方法吸引顾客
27.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 蔚蓝の羽) 说一项research显示，多运动的人比少运动的人less hospitalized。然后有一个S城，有个公司想通过提供当地很好的gym, 来减少municipal employees health insurance的cost， 同时通过减少cost来keep当地的budget balance。
原题：
The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town's business manager.
"Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don't exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda's municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."
研究发现运动的人比不运动的人去医院的机会少一半，因此一个manger决定为他们的员工发造一个体育馆，这样能减少医疗保险的coverage从而减少花费。
参考思路：
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
4. False causal relationship
5. All things are equal
6.Insufficient sample
参考范文：
In this memo Saluda's business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town's budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don't exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town's budget. The manager's argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda's employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda's employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda's employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager's plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager's proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda's budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.
