21.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 鲁邦四世) 一个健身中心(Center)，去年夏天开房了一个新的游泳池(swimming pool)之后，会员量大增。所以为了提升人流量，进而促进收入(revenue)增加，这个中心准备增加新的许多设施。(注：revenue主要是基于会员费的)。由于这些新设施是其他健身中心不具备的，这可以有助于本中心建立竞争优势。
原题：
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12%。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量来增加收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
参考思路：
1.首先，认为会员使用游泳池的数量增加就能增加会员人数是没有根据的。错误的建立了这两者的关系。也许去年夏天特别的热，所以大家天天都来游泳，或者新游泳池设施齐全服务好，所以会员们都放弃了去别的地方游泳的选择。但是不能就直接说明这和会员人数会增加有什么因果关系。
2.全时对等。认为去年发生的事情同样也会发生在将来，没有根据。不能证明说他们会有同样的结果。
3.认为增加游乐场所就能增加会员和利润没有根据。顾客除了要求更多新颖的游乐设施，对服务的要求和会员fee也很重要，其他游乐场所降低会员费，提供coupon，bonus，price advantage之类的同样也有竞争力;此外还忽略了增加这么多的游乐设施要投入的成本很大，也许最后收入还不及投入的成本多，反而使利润下降。
参考范文：
Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author's recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author's argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author's belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart's membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
22.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: BBBinko ) Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year's graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.
原题：
The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year's graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”
两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。
参考思路：
1，很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
2，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
3，很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。
4. False causal relationship :退学率和毕业生成绩与计算机指导无因果关系
5. All things are equal：remain unchanged，两年前结果不能用于未来
6. False analogy：N高中与这一区所有学校无可比性
7. Insufficient sample:Nova这个一个学校不具有代表性
参考范文：
Sample essay 1:
The argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last year's graduates' results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. For example, achievements could have been made in other subjects than the ones with interactive computer instruction. Or last years' graduates might not have been given the interactive computer instruction. Or the decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High School's decline of the dropout and last year's graduates' achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools. If it does not suit other schools, the instruction will not work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last year's graduates' are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the subjects or to all the students. If the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other projects such as the library, the quality of the school's education will also compromise.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the dropout rate declined and last year's graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the instruction since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction, that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is affordable to all the schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board of Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum. Two reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects was immediately followed by a decline in the school dropout rate. Second, last year's graduates experienced impressive achievements in college. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause of these events. Many other factors could bring about these same results. For example, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take jobs. In addition, the school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last year's graduates bear some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at Nova High. However, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Lacking evidence that links the achievements of the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students' impressive performance.
In conclusion, the recommendation that Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum is ill-founded. To strengthen this recommendation the author would have to demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction. All that has been shown so far is a correlation between these events.
