7.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: AIWeak): 大致内容是造手机的C公司年报提议大量购买生产现有型号手机所需的贵金属，因为这几年贵金属的价格涨落很大，而且预期手机部门的生产规模会扩大
考古:
V1. with high quantity purchasing of expensive metal products, a cell phone company said that becasue the price is rise and fall dramatically and becasue the future cell phone market will grow and high volume of product demands, it should lock in saving by purchasing large quantity of matal at current price to keep continued profits
V2. 一个生产生产公司想提高利润.途径是降低成本.因为原材料设计贵重金属,金,银等.所以方法是大批量购入该原材料,以获得更低成本.
V3. 之前寂静里面有的，#10应该是，就是生产手机需要很多很贵但是很稀有的金属。然后在过去的10年中，这些金属的价格非常不稳定(dramatic rise and fall in the prices) 然后那个公司认为他们的预算还有市场对他们手机的需求非常可观，所以他们决定一次买很多那些稀有金属。因为他们认为这样做可以lock in saving for the company as well as guarantee a continued high profits in the furture.
V4. 生产手机需要大量的金属，比如金银之类的，在过去十年中厂商对这些原料的需求不断增加，并且因此影响到这些金属的价格大幅变动。由于预测说今后手机需求将继续不断增加并且对原材料的购买也将不断增加，因此可以考虑通过现在大量购买这些原材料作为lock in the cost来节约成本，从而争取更大的利润。
参考思路：
1. 贵重金属属于投资范畴,价格不恒定.无法确定什么时候买入是合适的时机.所以很有可能造成不必要亏损.
2. 贵重金属存储与看护需要额外的劳动力和仓储资金.这增加了隐形成本.
3. 生产技术的变更的不确定性.有可能不久的未来电话不需要那些贵重金属了.
4. 资金的有效利用性.作为生产行业,最低成本和最大产能应该是两大重点.资金应该投入到最有效的方位去.大量购入原材料,囤积造成资金回流速度过慢.产生条件成本.若资金投入到产能开发,或许会回流更快,达到更好的效果.
5. 物品价格长线会自然协调.短期购入大量原材料看似省钱.但是长线来说,物品稀缺了,自然价格本比原先该涨的跟涨得厉害.宏观上讲,不可能省下什么钱的.
6. 不充分：提前购入不一定能保证利润不受损，因为价格波动可能上浮或下降
7. 该贵金属是否在决定手机成本中起重要作用?可能影响甚微
8. 不是唯一的解决办法。也就是说keep savings and get continued-high profits的途径有很多，不止文章中提到的那一个，author很多的factor没考虑到
9. 这种预测不可靠。forcast也是就是几个大学生做出来的，他们的数据来源不可靠或者已经outdated了。
10. 过去几年涨价不代表未来会涨价，如果跌价会给工厂造成损失。
8.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: colejon ): the director of franchising at MegaBurger写了一份信给the owner of Cindy's Sandwich Shop, 想要拉拢他们入伙，cindy's sandwich shop是一个med-sized restaurant in Billville已经开了2家分店. 说了一堆franchising的好处：lowering operating costs, share advertising costs with other franchised restaurants, more customers will come for a well-known restaurant. 狗主觉得这director的信写的很persuasive 但是不够motivative. 这个小镇的人口fixed了，顾客早认知了这个品牌，就算你是名牌，顶多你能下调点成本，但是如果店主无所谓更多的利润，就满足于2个分店，那加盟不加盟就无所谓了。
考古:
V1：AA：貌似是一个F食品店老板给一个sandwich店老板写了封信，建议s的老板改成F店，因为事实证明顾客更喜欢去离家近的地方消费以及在知道菜单的地方吃饭。。。并且F店的进货cost更低。。。
V2：AA是说，一个快餐franchise【楼主连这个单词是啥意思都不知道对不起啊不喜欢背单词啊。。。】连锁店A的头头写信给三明治店B的人写信，说希望B不要买三明治了，跟他们一起去开快餐店，来提高利润吸引顾客啥的。原因有两个，一是开快餐店可以提高operating efficiency， 因为cost of suppliers 比较低还有能 share advertisement expenses，二是现在人们都喜欢有名气的clothing shop， 所以应该也会喜欢restaurants they know what to expect in quality and what's avaible这种类似的东西这句话楼主又没看懂。。。对不起啊
V3：AA：是说一个汉堡公司写给CINDY三文治餐厅的一个东西，内容大概是：加入大公司(还是跨国连锁神马的)都会带来很多好处。如果三文治公司加入汉堡公司的连锁，可以降低OPERATING COST和吸引更多顾客。而且就好像人们更愿意去那些nationally known clothing and home-supply shop，人们也更愿意去知道菜单会有什么菜的餐厅去吃饭。所以三文治公司应该立刻加入汉堡公司的大家庭。
这个还算是好些。
V4：Franchise restaurant 的directer 寫信給 Cindy's Sandwich邀請加入他們的 MegaBurger national chain。列出幾個優點1. 大型連鎖可以減少開銷 2.某些客人喜歡到大型連鎖店消費
参考思路：
1)gratuitous assumption，不一定加入连锁店就能吸引更多的顾客，可能顾客喜欢三明治店原本的风格，加入连锁店之后反而流失客户;
(2) one sidedness, 即使有可能有吸引新客户和降低采购成本等优势，同样也有潜在的劣势，比如training员工和重新装修店面的成本上升，老板也可能会失去管理权;
(3) false analogy，服装店和餐厅不可比，服装店的客户可能喜欢stable的quality，但餐厅的顾客喜欢推陈出新的产品，熟悉的menu可能更让客户厌烦
9.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: tangjiuxuan) 说公司X向员工做了调查，询问公司最需要改进的是什么方面(按最需要改进到最不需要改进排列)。调查结果是“与管理层之间的共同问题”得分最高。于是公司的高级管理人员推出了一系列sessions，员工自愿参加。管理层认为，通过这些session的实行，公司最需要解决的问题已经得到了改进。
原题:
The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
参考思路：
1.The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2.How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3.Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
4.调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
5.改进方法是否充分?是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见
参考范文：
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.
