10.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: Crissie) the processing of color film 使得 color film 的价格降低了。。。正逢 Olympic Food 的15还是25周年的celebration, 要把 the processing of the color film 运用到 the processing of the food 然后可以minimize costs and thus maximize profit
原题:
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods:
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
参考思路：
1. False analogy：冲印胶片与生产食物类比错误
2. Gratuitous assumption:错误假设长久经验可以降低成本，增加利润
3. False causal relationship：成本与利润并没有直接联系，还要看售价等因素影响
1. 错误类比：color film和processor of frozen foods不同。不能因此推出发生在film身上的情况同样发生在冷冻食品公司。这样推论不合理。
2. 忽略了其他因素。成本下降还有其他可能性。比如生产结构发生了改变，管理者改革等等都有可能。不排除这些可能就不能直接direct推断成本下降是因为经验多
3. 说经验多就到很多没有根据。也许什么都没学到。有很多老牌的公司最后还是bankrupt就是因为这样。
参考范文：
Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author's rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author's forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods' “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author's argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author's view.
11.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: lakes ) 关于一个department store是否要减少clothing department，扩大house hould department的问题，不是很难。
原题:
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
参考思路：
1. False causal relationship:不能有家庭用品销售量上升就说顾客在选择.....
2. Either or choice:服装销售下降，家用销售增加就说....，太绝对，也有可能其他的都增加，就衣服销售减少了
3. All thing are equal：过去三个月的销量不能代表未来
4. Gratuitous assumption：因为这三个月的销售量就假设这个趋势，不对。假设缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部可以形成优势也不对。
参考范文：
Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author's conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year's sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.
