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Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globaliza |  |
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Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globaliza | |
The enthusiasm over Asia is certainly understandable on one key level: On the surface, there can be no mistaking the sheer power of the Asian growth miracle. The broad collection of economies that comprise Developing Asia expanded at an 8.3% average annual growth rate over the 2001-08 period – basically three times the 2.8% average growth pace of the rest of the global economy. Putting it another way, the extraordinary dynamism of Developing Asia added about 1.2 percentage points extra to annualized global growth over the past eight years.
But here’s the critical catch: Over this same period, Asia has continued to direct an increasing portion of its production to others. The export share of Developing Asia’s GDP rose from 35% to 45% over the past decade, whereas the share going to internal private consumption fell to a record low of 45% of pan-regional GDP in 2008. As such, the region does not satisfy the most basic pre-condition of autonomous economic leadership – an economy where production support is dependent increasingly on home markets rather than on external demand.
In short, these are not the footprints of a new autonomous engine of global growth. As the shifting mix of Developing Asia’s GDP indicates, the region’s growth premium has been driven more by exports – and by the ancillary support of export-led fixed investment in infrastructure and export-producing capacity – than by internal private consumption. For now, the dreams of Asian-led global leadership are wishful thinking. Developing Asia is still more of a follower than a leader.
Validation of this critical deduction comes from the unmistakable repercussions of the current global crisis. In the aftermath of a U.S.-led synchronous downturn in the developed world, every Asian economy either went immediately into recession or experienced a sharp slowdown. Asia’s ever-rising external connectivity made such an outcome inevitable. The Asia consumer – despite all the hype – wasn’t nearly strong enough to forestall this outcome.
The starting point for The Next Asia is that the region’s hyper growth currently is still much more a function of external than internal demand. This is a simple, but very powerful observation. It not only offers a window into the region’s vulnerability to the massive external shock that has just hit but it also provides a diagnosis of the staying power of any recovery. But most important of all, it lays bare the recipe for an Asia that can finally stand on its own – an autonomy that can only be realized by drawing support from its own vast population of 3.5 billion people.
This is the essence of The Next Asia – the daunting transition from an externally-dependent growth model to one that derives increasing support from internal private consumption. I remain optimistic that Asia is very much headed in this exciting direction. It’s just a question of when – not if. But, most assuredly, in my opinion, the “when” is not now.
As is the case for almost all the opportunities of The Next Asia, the key to this transition undoubtedly lies in China. There has, of course, been considerable debate over what it will take to spur a consumer-led growth impetus in China – ultimately the key driver of The Next Asia. There is no silver bullet. Rural income support is undoubtedly critical – especially for a nation that continues to have close to 60% of its vast population residing in the countryside. So, too, is the need to develop a consumer-products industry, together with a wholesale and retail distribution and service and infrastructure.
But, in my view, the main impediment to Chinese consumption remains excessive levels of precautionary saving. Recent estimates by Cornell University economist, Eswar Prasad put China’s household saving rate at 37.5% in 2008 – up a stunning ten percentage points from the 27.5% reading recorded as recently as 2000. Chinese consumers remain very much predisposed toward saving. Until that changes – a transition that can only be enabled by the funding of a modern social safety net (social security, private pensions, medical and unemployment insurance) – China’s macro imbalances can only worsen. That would make it all the harder to stay the course of sustainable growth and development.
Consequently, the time is ripe for China to move aggressively in building a modern social safety set as a key pillar of a pro-consumption macro rebalancing strategy. The benefits would be enormous. Not only would China better insulate itself from future external demand shocks, but also a reduction of excess personal saving would go a long way in cutting China’s current account and trade surpluses – thereby soothing potential trade frictions and tempering protectionist risks. Moreover, the resulting shift in the mix of the economy away from industrial production-led export and investment to more of a services-based consumption dynamic would go a long way in lowering the energy and natural resources content of Chinese GDP. That, in turn, would lead to a lighter, cleaner strain of Chinese output – extremely helpful for the nation’s daunting pollution abatement and environmental remediation objectives.
Yes, Asia’s economies now appear to be rebounding. But there are serious questions over the quality of the recovery – raising concerns that the upturn that could very well be heralding a false dawn. That’s because it is being driven largely by an unprecedentedly vigorous bank-funded investment boom in China. On the heels of RMB 7 trillion in new bank lending in the first half of 2009 – by far, the sharpest six month burst of Chinese loan growth on record – surging fixed asset investment accounted for fully 88% of China’s total GDP growth in the first two quarters of the year. That’s more than double the 43% average growth contribution made by this sector over the previous decade and enough to take the investment share of Chinese GDP to over 45% – an unheard of investment ratio for any major economy in the modern era.
To the extent that Asia has now become a China-centric growth machine – a transformation that can be validated by a sharply increased China focus to intra-regional trade flows – the sustainability of the Chinese recovery holds the key to recovery prospects for the region as a whole. This is where the imperatives of The Next Asia come into play. Given the unbalanced character of the Chinese economy – together with the lopsided nature of it post-crisis rebound in the first half of 2009 – serious questions remain regarding the staying power of the region’s newfound recovery.
Two and a half years ago, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao unwittingly wrote the script for The Next Asia. He warned that while China’s economy looked strong on the surface, beneath the surface it was increasingly “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable.” These “four uns,” as they were eventually to become known, can be effectively addressed only if China – and the rest of Asia – embraces a new mantra of consumer-led growth. The Great Recession of 2008-09 underscores a new urgency to this challenge. It is Asia’s wake-up call that the old ways of export-led growth have just about outlived their useful existence.
Asia has long been the world’s most exciting growth story. But if its 3.5 billion consumers now play an increasingly greater role in shaping the region’s economic development, the excitement will take on an entirely new dimension. The Old Asia was always limited in its capacity as an engine of global growth. Not so with The Next Asia and its potential to culminate in the long awaited flourishing of the Asian Century.
-Stephen S. RoachStephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. Currently the Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, for the bulk of his career he served as the firm's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a jet-lagged resident of multiple time zones, splitting his time between eight Asian countries and his family home in Connecticut.
"Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice among international economic commentators. He was one of the few who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world economy."
—Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK
"As Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a renowned economist, Stephen Roach has a solid macroeconomics background, in-depth understanding of the region, rich knowledge of various industries, and an open mind. In this book, Steve vividly describes the changes of Asia -- and the driving forces behind those changes。Furthermore, he brilliantly points out the challenges Asia is facing, as well as its impacts on the global economy. Asia is reshaping the global economy in this post-crisis world, and I believe this book provides us with unique insights as to how this reshaping is playing out."
—Dr. Zhu Min, Group Executive Vice President, Bank of China
"Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice among international economic commentators. He was one of the few who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world economy."
—Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK
目录
Acknowledgments.
Introduction.
Chapter 1: A World in Crisis.
A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy. Save the Day. Coping with a Different Recession. Davos Diary: 2008. Double Bubble Trouble. Even When the Worst Is Over — Watch Out For Aftershocks. Pitfalls in a Post-Bubble World. Panic of '08: Enough Scapegoating. Global Fix for a Global Crisis Changing the Fed's Policy Mandate. An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama. Dying of Consumption. Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble A Post-Bubble Global Business Cycle. America's Japan Syndrome. Whither Capitalism? After the Era of Excess. Same Old, Same Old. Depression Foil.
Chapter 2: The Globalization Debate.
Open Macro. The Battleground of Globalization. The Global Delta. Beggars Can't be Choosers. Perils of a Different Globalization. Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture. Doha Doesn't Matter. Global Speed Trap. Hitting a BRIC Wall? Global Comeback — First Japan, Now Germany. Labor versus Capital. Global Lessons. From Globalization to Localization. Unprepared for Globalization. The Currency Foil. The Shifting Mix of Global Saving.
Chapter 3: Chinese Rebalancing.
China's Rebalancing Challenge. A Commodity-Lite China. Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge. China's Great Contradiction. Soft Landing Made in China? The Great Chinese Profits Debate. China Goes for Quality. Heavy Lifting. Two Birds with One Stone. Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable. China's Global Challenge. Consumer-led Growth Only Course for China. China's Macro Imperatives. The Manchurian Paradox.
Chapter 4: Pan-Asian Challenges.
The Next Asia. Rebalancing Made in Japan? From Beijing to Dubai. A Tale of Two Asias. Kim's Boost to Globalization. Japan's Missing Link. India on the Move. The Cranes of Dubai. Asian Decoupling Unlikely. The Korea Test. Asia's Policy Trap. Complacency Asian Style. Another Asian Wake-up Call.
Chapter 5: U.S.-China Tensions.
A Slippery Slope. Past the Point of No Return. Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy. Who's Subsidizing Whom? Protectionist Threats — Then and Now. The Ghost of Reed Smoot. China's Pace, America's Angst. The Politics of Trade Frictions. A Wake-Up Call for the US and China: Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship.
Afterword.
About the Author.
Index.
……
