Xi Jinping eats simple food, shuns “formalist” party dogma and takes his wife abroad with him on trips. In case anyone could possibly doubt that China’s new president is a man of the people, he was even reported to have recently hailed a taxi. Last week a website approved by the State Council Information Office carried a story with a too-good-to-be-true quote from a Beijing cabby who was supposed to have been flagged down by the leader-in-disguise. “Has anyone ever told you that you look like general secretary Xi?” he is said to have asked unsuspectingly – presumably in Beijing’s equivalent of a Cockney accent.
习近平吃得简朴,摒弃中共“形式主义”教条,携夫人一同出国访问。如果还有人对新任中国国家主席是人民之子表示怀疑,就看看不久前流传的一条新闻吧——习近平竟然乘坐了一次出租车。上周,一家经中国国务院新闻办公室(State Council Information Office)审批的网站刊登了一则新闻,引用了一位北京出租车司机让人难以置信的话。据说,这位司机被微服私访的习近平拦下来之后,还毫不怀疑地问道:有没有人说你长得像习总书记?这位司机可能操着一口“京片子”(“京片子”,北京当地口音,相当于伦敦东区口音)。
The story was later officially declared a fake, too improbable even for a leader whose style is palpably more human than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who made R2-D2 in Star Wars look like a thing of flesh and blood. Mr Xi may confine himself to official limousines, but his style is refreshingly different. He has tapped into public outrage at the lavishly corrupt lives of party hacks, banning banquets in a campaign captured in the slogan “one soup, four dishes”. Instead of moaning on about the “three represents” or the “scientific outlook on development” – the less than fetching catchphrases of his predecessors – he talks in almost American terms about “the China Dream”.
随后,官方澄清这则新闻是假的,即便对一位明显比其前任胡锦涛更有人情味的领导人而言,这样的故事也太不真实了。与胡锦涛相比,《星球大战》(Star Wars)里的机器人R2-D2反倒更显得有血有肉。习近平或许只乘坐豪华公务轿车,但他的风格令人耳目一新。他迎合民众对于党内干部奢华腐败生活的愤怒,发起了整治大吃大喝作风的运动,重提“四菜一汤”的接待标准。习近平没有不厌其烦地强调“三个代表”或者“科学发展观”(其前任不太有魅力的口头禅),而是使用类似美国式的字眼,提出了“中国梦”。
As China’s economy slows after three decades of breakneck growth, few doubt that it stands on the threshold of wrenching change. With Mr Xi overseeing that transition, it is of vital concern whether his change of style heralds a change of substance. In short, is Mr Xi a closet reformer? And, even if he is, in an age of collective leadership and ossified vested interests, will he be able to act on his convictions?
在经过30年高速发展之后,中国经济增速已开始放缓,因此人们普遍认为,中国现已处在大变革的前夜。随着习近平成为变革的掌舵人,他个人的风格转变能否促成实质变化,便成了人们格外关心的问题。简言之,习近平是一位尚未露出真面目的改革家吗?即便他是,但在一个领导权由集体分享、既得利益集团固化的时代,他有能力践行他的信念吗?
Scholars who have been watching China for years caution that we should not read too much into his public persona. Wen Jiabao, who recently stepped down as premier, loved to be seen with coalminers, peasants and disaster victims. Yet Mr Wen and Mr Hu oversaw a period of almost robber-baron-style capitalism and a widening of the wealth gap, although they did attempt to nurture a social welfare system and to improve conditions in the countryside. David Zweig, chair professor of social sciences at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, says much of Mr Xi’s glad-handing is mere campaigning. In China, he says, leaders are “elected” first and have to run for office after.
有些一直关注中国的学者警告称,我们不应过度解读习近平的公共形象。最近卸任中国总理的温家宝,喜欢对外展示自己与矿工、农民以及灾民站在一起的形象。然而在胡温执政期间,近似强盗资本家式的资本主义大行其道,贫富差距日益扩大——尽管他们确实曾试图建成一套社会保障体系,并改善农村状况。香港科技大学(Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)社会学讲座教授崔大伟(David Zweig)表示,习近平热心为民只是作秀而已。他指出,在中国,领导人是先“当选”,再通过造势体现结果的正当性。
Still, the way leaders conduct themselves can be significant. One only has to think of Mikhail Gorbachev or Deng Xiaoping – who also projected a down-to-earth persona – to see that style can be a declaration of intent. Orville Schell of the Asia Society says Mr Xi is difficult to read. But his guess is that he has depth and conviction, partly stemming from his experiences working on the land during the Cultural Revolution. His stints running Fujian and Zhejiang, two dynamic provinces, are said to have made him more sympathetic to the private sector. Optimists also hope that the influence of his father, a political moderate, has rubbed off.
尽管如此,领导人言行举止仍可能关系重大。只要想想米哈伊尔??戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)和邓小平(也展现出平易近人的形象)就可以知道,个人风格能够宣示意图。美国亚洲协会(Asia Society)的奥维尔??斯科勒(Orville Schell)表示,习近平很难解读。但他猜测,习近平既有深度又有信念,这一定程度上源于“文革”期间他在农村工作的经历。据信,执掌两个生机勃勃的省份福建和浙江的经历,让他更加同情私营行业。乐观者还希望,习近平的父亲(一位立场温和的政治家)可能也对他有所影响。
Even if he does have “reformist” instincts, it is not clear he will be able to act on them. “I’m afraid we’re not in the era of the ‘big leader’ any more,” says Mr Schell, who believes today’s party chief has less leeway than Deng and – thankfully – Mao Zedong. Mr Xi is hemmed in by a seven-man standing committee that looks far from enlightened, containing as it does a seasoned propagandist and a North Korean-trained economist. For the first time since 1949, China’s leader has not one but two former party chiefs, Mr Hu and Jiang Zemin, watching over his shoulder.
即便习近平有着“改革家”的天性,但他是否有能力践行尚不清楚。斯科勒表示:“我担心,我们已经不再处于任何‘伟大领袖’的时代。”他认为,如今的中共一把手比邓小平以及毛泽东(谢天谢地)拥有的回旋余地更小。习近平受到7人政治局常委会的制约,而这几名常委看上去远没那么开明,其中有一位资深宣传官员,还有一位在朝鲜学习过的经济学家。自1949年来,中国领导人首次不是受到一位前总书记的监视,而是两位——胡锦涛和江泽民。
Still, Mr Xi has some independent power. He has been given all three top jobs – party secretary, president and chairman of the central military commission – and is a princeling from a family with top revolutionary credentials. According to Bloomberg, his relatives have amassed huge wealth, which could make him less likely to attack vested interests than optimists hope.
不过,习近平掌握着一些独立的权力。他已经获任了三项最高职务——中共中央总书记、国家主席和中央军委主席,还是一名有着极深资历的革命家庭的“太子党”。根据彭博(Bloomberg)报道,习近平的亲属积累了大笔财富,这也让他打击既得利益集团的可能性低于乐观者的期望。
Even if, hypothetically, Mr Xi were preparing for radical reform, we probably would not know it yet. Mr Jiang took eight years before he and his premier, Zhu Rongji, were able to launch sweeping economic changes in 1997. It could be years before Mr Xi consolidates his power.
即便假设习近平准备实施激进改革,我们眼下可能也看不到丝毫迹象。1997年,江泽民与时任国务院总理朱镕基发起了全面经济改革,但他此前已为此准备了8年时间。习近平要巩固权力可能还要数年时间。
So what, if anything, is to be learnt from his first five months in office? His crackdown on corruption has gone further than many imagined, though more “flies” have been swatted than “tigers” bagged. Mr Xi has also brandished his patriotic credentials. The China Dream entails restoring national pride, but his tough stance on, say, territorial integrity could also provide cover for domestic reform.
那么,习近平执政的最初5个月又能向世人透露出什么样的信息呢?他打击腐败的力度超过了多数人的想象,不过,拍死的“苍蝇”可比捕获的“老虎”多。习近平还打起了爱国牌。“中国梦”要求恢复民族自豪感,但他的强硬立场(如在维护领土完整方面)也可能为实施国内改革提供掩护。