Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

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		Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle
		Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

媒体推荐

"Bewitched, bothered and befuddled by the daily drizzle of economic data? Joseph H. Ellis has a cure." -- Bloomberg News

"The recession obsession is a terrible mistake...We need to find a way to talk about slowing rates of growth." -- New York Times

作者简介

Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.

目录

Preface and Acknowledgements; Part 1: "Seeing" The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos; Chapter 1 Seeing Around Economic Corners; Chapter 2 Making Sense of the Economy; Chapter 3 Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns; Chapter 4 The "ROCET" Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession; Chapter 5 Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out; Chapter 6 The Nature of Leading Indicators; Part 2: Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market; Chapter 7 Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy; Chapter 8 Consumer Spending and the Stock Market; Part 3: Forecasting Consumer Spending; Chapter 9 Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology; Chapter 10 Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy; Chapter 11 Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard; Chapter 12 Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation; Chapter 13 Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward; Chapter 14 Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link; Part 4: From Theory to Practice; Chapter 15 "Drilling Down:" Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company; Chapter 16 Conclusion: Making Economics Happen; Appendix 1 Credit: Consumer Spending's "Swing Factor"; Appendix 2 Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? Appendix 3 Major Industry Data Series; Appendix 4 www.AheadoftheCurvetheBook.com; Appendix 4 URLs for Charts in this Book

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