In China's Jiangsu province, near Shanghai, mountains of solar panels sitting around a factory owned by Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) are fast losing their value.
Trina and other Chinese solar companies, including Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP.N) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (YGE.N), hold inventory of about 5 gigawatts (GW), analysts say, nearly one-sixth of annual global demand.
The stockpiles would be valued at about $4.5 billion based on the average selling price of 87 cents for a panel in the second quarter, but the glut means prices are falling fast.
The companies, which face a steep anti-dumping duty in the United States and possible tariffs in top market Europe, have few options but sell the existing excess cheaply in China.
"With the anti-dumping investigation starting in Europe, Chinese companies are avoiding shipping to the continent at the moment," said analyst Stefan de Haan at business information provider IHS Inc.
"This will further increase inventory over the next few weeks or so."
Companies have already started slashing production but they have a long way to go. Chinese makers have the capacity to produce 50 GW of solar panels a year -- well above global annual demand for 30 GW.
Analysts have taken note and have pushed up their loss forecasts for Yingli, Suntech, Trina and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO.O), Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows.
Panel prices are already the lowest in China and they are expected to fall further below 58 cents per watt, according to IHS. It says prices in the United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to be 69 cents per watt.
EUROPEAN BLUES
China sold about 21 billion euros ($27.42 billion) in solar panels and components to the European Union in 2011 -- some 60 percent of all Chinese solar exports.
But the regulatory problems have come on top of the global glut -- which formed after Chinese manufacturers ramped up production just as top European markets cut subsidies.
Stockpiles of solar panels at Chinese firms now average about 110 days of sales, three times the 42 days of inventory averaged globally, Thomson Reuters data shows.
European solar companies, led by Solarworld AG (SWVG.DE), allege that Chinese producers sell panels below market value, prompting a European regulatory investigation.
Chinese companies have denied the charges, but to minimize losses from any eventuality, some are looking to cut production. Suntech, the world's largest solar panel maker, said on Monday it would slash its capacity to produce cells, used to make panels, by a quarter.
To get rid of excess inventory, Trina has also lowered production, raised sales in China and is looking at newer markets, said Thomas Young, a spokesman for the company.
DEEPER CUTS NEEDED
GTM Research analyst Shyam Mehta said about 15 GW of Chinese capacity needs to be taken offline for supply and demand to come into a balance.
"Given the continuing price pressure in the sector, with very little hope of the prices stabilizing at the current levels, it is still the best strategy to try to keep your inventories as low as possible, and sell your products," said Thiemo Lang, senior portfolio manager at Zurich-based Sustainable Asset Management.
Lang, who manages a fund that has $900 million in cleantech assets under management, says solar panel and cell companies offer little value now because of the chronic oversupply and regulatory uncertainty.
The glut has already sent prices crashing, with solar panels, which cost as much as $4.20 a watt in 2008, diving 80 percent in the past four years.
Most of the Chinese companies wrote down the value of their inventory in the second quarter and their shares have lost about three-quarters of their value in the past year.
With doors to Europe and the United States closing, Chinese companies have to sell at home, but that market would have to expand massively to cater to their production.
China's consumption of solar power products is expected to jump to about 3.5 GW in the second half of the year from 2 GW in the first, Mehta said.
The country last month raised its 2015 target for solar power capacity by 40 percent to about 21 GW, the third rise in just over a year -- but sales are needed now, in 2012.
"The Chinese companies (would be) more than willing to try to deploy their modules in their own country, but it seems that the overall Chinese market won't be more than 4 GW this year, and that the pricing will be quite poor," said Lang.
While most other companies have much lower inventories, two U.S. firms, SunPower Corp (SPWR.O) and First Solar Inc (FSLR.O), had stocks just 15 days lower than their Chinese rivals, yet they were among the very few profitable solar companies in the June quarter.
相关中文资料
距离上海不远的江苏省,天合光能(Trina Solar)(TSL.N: 行情)工厂里的太阳能面板存货堆积如山,价值迅速流失.
多位分析师表示,天合光能、尚德电力(Suntech Power)(STP.N: 行情)及英利绿色能源控股(Yingli Green Energy Holding)(YGE.N: 行情)等中国光伏业者手中持有的存货约5千兆瓦(gigawatt,GW),几乎是全球年度需求的六分之一.
根据第二季平均每片面板售价0.87美元来计算,这些存货的估值约为45亿美元,但供给过剩导致价格快速下跌.
这些公司在美国面临高额的反倾销税,恐怕在最大的欧洲市场也会面临额外税赋,它们所剩选项已然无多,恐怕得在中国市场低价卖出过剩存货.
"在欧洲展开反倾销调查的情形下,中国企业目前正避免向欧陆出货,"企业资讯供应商IHS Inc分析师Stefan de Haan表示.
"这将导致存货在未来数周继续增加."
公司已经开始减产,但还有漫漫长路要走.中国光伏企业每年的太阳能面板产能为50 GW,远高於全球需求的30 GW.
浏览太阳能面板库存状况图表,请点选:(r.reuters.com/heg72t)
汤森路透StarMine数据显示,多位分析师已经看到这个现象,并已经调高英利、尚德、天合及晶澳太阳能(JA Solar Holdings)(JASO.O: 行情)的亏损预估.
根据IHS,中国市场上的太阳能面板价格已经处於最低水准,可能还会进一步跌至每瓦0.58美元.IHS称预期美国、加拿大、墨西哥等地太阳能面板将为每瓦0.69美元.
欧洲阴霾
中国2011年向欧盟销售约210亿欧元(274.2亿美元)的太阳能面板和相关组件,约相当於中国太阳能产业出口总值的60%.
在欧洲各市场调降补助之际,中国业者大举提高产能,导致全球供给过剩,之後监管问题接踵而至.
汤森路透数据显示,中国企业太阳能面板存货周转天期约110天,是全球均值42天的近三倍.
以Solarworld AG(SWVG.DE: 行情)为首的欧洲光伏业者指控中国生产商低价倾销太阳能面板,引起欧洲监管当局调查.
中国企业已经否认指控,但是为了以防万一,将损失减到最低,一些企业已经开始减产.全球最大的太阳能板制造商--尚德电力周一表示,太阳能电池产能将削减四分之一.
而天合光能公司人士Thomas Young称,为处理多余库存,公司也已减产并提高在中国的销售,同时寻求新市场.
需要进一步减产
GTM Research的分析师Shyam Mehta称,若要达到供需平衡,中国需要减产15 GW左右.
Sustainable资产管理公司的资深投资组合经理Thiemo Lang称,"由於这个行业持续出现价格压力,价格在当前水准企稳的希望渺茫,因此最佳策略仍然是尽可能压低库存."
他还表示,因长期供过於求以及监管的不确定性,太阳能板和电池企业当前能提供的价值很低.Thiemo Lang管理一支规模9亿美元,投资清洁能源资产的基金.
供过於求已让价格崩跌,太阳能板每瓦价格在2008年最高达到4.20美元,过去四年内已暴跌80%.
多数中国企业在第二季减记库存,股价也在过去一年跌去约四分之三.
随着通往欧洲和美国的大门关闭,中国企业不得不转向内销,但是国内市场需要大规模扩张才能消化这些产量.
Mehta表示,预计下半年中国太阳能产品消费会从上半年的2 GW增加到3.5 GW.
中国上个月宣布将2015年太阳能装机目标上调40%至约21 GW,为一年多来第三次上调,但是现在就必需能把产品卖掉.
Lang说道,"中国企业会很乐意在本国出售产品,但看来今年中国整体市场不会超过4 GW,而且定价也会很差."
