For commodity markets, the third iteration of U.S. central bank stimulus may play like many movie sequels -- a familiar plot, a predictable rise, yet less potent than the original.
But the Federal Reserve has introduced a new twist on its latest round of quantitative easing (QE), one that is giving some traders even more reason to be cautious rather than optimistic: this time around, nobody knows when it will end.
Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged on Thursday to inject as much money as needed into the U.S. economy to repair a battered job market, by buying $40 billion worth of bonds a month until he gets results. Under the QE2, it was a flat $600 billion. If unemployment falls, the Fed may just reduce its allocation.
"It was not the full-blown, giant, lump-sum initiative market participants had envisioned," Jason Schenker at Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas. "The positive impact on financial markets and commodity prices may be more gradual."
In the previous two rounds, raw material prices typically leapt in the run-up to the Fed announcement, with gains slowing to a trickle in the following weeks. It took months, or as much as a year, for more substantive gains to build up. And the percentage of gains after each stimulus has been diminishing.
"The critical question facing investors now is how long this stimulus round will last," said Adam Sarhan, founder of New York's Sarhan Capital.
"If they think it's going to go on for a while and the Fed will have to do even more as time progresses, then it's right to raise the call now on oil, gold and metals. But most of these markets have already had epic price moves, so I think people will be more cautiously optimistic moving forward."
Oil prices rose nearly a third in over just 10 weeks before the Fed's decision to widen its bond-buying program. With so much gain in such a short time, investors may be averse to continue pushing the market at such a pace, analysts say.
Oil's benchmark Brent crude in London settled at$116.90 a barrel, up 1 percent on the day and 29 percent higher from a June 22 low of $88.49.
London copper futures rallied to above $8,200 a metric tons (1.1023 tons) in after-hours business, up about 14 percent from 10 weeks ago. U.S. gold futures rose about 13 percent in the same period.
The bellwether 19-commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index .CRB rose for a sixth straight session, the longest such streak since February. The index is up nearly 20 percent from its June low, nearing bull market territory.
MARKET SLOW TO SHOW GAINS
After the previous two QE rounds in 2008 and 2010, commodity markets showed sizeable gains after months, not weeks.
Brent, for instance, saw a 12 percent price decline in the first three months after QE1, launched in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 which triggered the global financial meltdown. Six months later, it was up 20 percent and a year later, it showed a 56 percent gain.
When the QE1 was expanded in 2009, Brent did better, gaining nearly 50 percent in three months and 71 percent a year on. But that stronger performance was in line with the sharp rebound in many assets depressed by the worst of the financial crisis.
When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at QE2 in the third quarter of 2010, Brent rose by a meager 3 percent a month later. Three months after the QE2 implemented, Brent was up 13 percent. Six months on, it showed a 38 percent rise and a year later, it had pared those gains to 27 percent.
The one clear winner seems to be gold, which surged 2 percent on Thursday, approaching its high for the year.
"They (the Fed) are emphasizing the growth mandate, and that means they don't care about inflation other than giving lip service to it," said Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Funds, which has $600 million in currency mutual-fund assets.
"The price of gold will do very well in the years to come," Merk said.
OUTSIDE FORCES MAY DAMPEN IMPACT
In the end, QE3 may have less of an impact simply because there are now more compelling stories to tell, and because the condition of the moribund U.S. economy has yielded to the euro zone crisis, Chinese stimulus, Middle East violence, devastating drought and other factors not present in 2008 or 2010.
"I see more of a downside risk for investors in the QE3 than an upside opportunity," says Charles Gradante, co-founder of the New York-based Hennessy Group, which invests in hedge funds.
"With the possible exception of gold, commodities, particularly oil and metals, just do not have the right economic outlook to continue with this kind of price growth."
Oil has been pushed higher lately by fresh unrest in the Middle East and Africa over a film produced in the United States that demonstrators consider blasphemous to Islam, as well as fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran to deter its nuclear program.
"Our impression is that hedge fund managers in the commodity space generally see further episodes of QE acting as a tailwind for commodity markets but not being the main driver of price action," said Osvaldo Canavosio, head of commodities research at Man Investments' fund of funds division.
"The main driver for most commodity markets will continue to be the idiosyncratic fundamental factors affecting its supply and demand."
对大宗商品市场来说,美联储推出的第三轮量化宽松(QE3)可能像许多电影的续集那样--情节相似,剧情高潮可期,就是影响没有第一集那麽震撼.
但美联储最新一轮QE有了新的花样,让一些交易商有更多理由保持谨慎,而不是变得乐观:这回没有人知道QE会何时结束.
美联储主席伯南克周四承诺,将通过每月购买400亿美元债券,向美国经济注入其需要的所有资金,修复就业市场,直到就业明显改善.之前QE2的规模明确为6,000亿美元.如果失业率下降,美联储可能只会减少QE3的购债规模.
"市场参与人士原本预期会出台一个成熟全面、规模巨大、一次性的购债计划,"Prestige Economics的分析师Jason Schenker说."对金融市场和大宗商品价格的积极影响可能会逐步体现."
"投资者现在面临的关键问题是,这轮刺激措施会持续多久,"Sarhan Capital创始人Adam Sarhan说.
"如果他们认为将持续一段时间,而且美联储未来将必须采取更多行动,那现在看涨原油、黄金和金属就对了.但这些市场中的大多数已经出现过大幅价格波动,所以我认为未来人们更多是保持谨慎乐观."
2008年和2010年美联储推出前两轮QE後,大宗商品市场是在几个月後才出现大幅涨幅,而不是几周後.
最终QE3的影响可能较小,因为目前其它一些事件的影响更大,比起欧债危机、中国刺激措施、中东局势动乱、严重旱灾和其它2008年或2010年所没有的因素,美国经济不振的状况显得相对次要.
"QE3出台期间,我认为投资者面临更多下档风险,而不是上档机遇,"Hennessy Group联合创始人Charles Gradante说.
"可能除了黄金之外,大宗商品没有理想的经济前景作为价格涨势的支撑,尤其是原油和金属."
Man Investments组合式基金业务的商品研究主管Osvaldo Canavosio称,"我们的印象是,专注于商品领域的对冲基金公司基本认为,更多QE将有利於商品市场,但不会成为推动商品价格的主要动力."
"推动多数商品市场的主要因素将继续是那些影响供需的独特基本面因素."
