Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will launch another round of bond buying this week are fueling speculation that China also may ease policy soon to shore up its cooling economy.
But analysts say investors who bet on quick action from the People's Bank of China could be disappointed, with only an outside chance that it would follow the Fed's lead with more monetary easing of its own any time soon.
The best markets could hope for would be a further cut in banks' reserve requirement (RRR), but the odds against such an imminent move or even an outright interest rate cut are high as a recent flare-up in property and consumer inflation overshadows the urgency of policy easing.
Moreover, unlike the 2008/09 global crisis, China's labor market is still holding up well in part due to wrenching economic and demographic shifts.
Markets simply may have underestimated Beijing's tolerance of lower economic growth this year, as long as the slowdown is not too abrupt and does not spark social unrest ahead of a once-in-a-generation leadership change expected next month.
The Chinese economy will slow further in the third quarter but regain some momentum late in the year as the impact of earlier policy easing fully kicks in, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists released on Wednesday.
SURPRISE?
Predicting the timing of China's monetary policy moves can be a daunting task given the central bank does not hold regular policy meetings as its counterparts in the West, and it has a track record of surprising the market.
One, albeit slim possibility is that the China may opt to cut banks' reserve requirements or rates as part of a globally coordinated policy action to shore up the world economy, especially if the Federal Reserve launches a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 after a two-day meeting ending on Thursday to spur the U.S. recovery.
China, the euro zone and Britain loosened monetary policy within less than an hour of each other in early July, signaling a growing level of alarm about the world economy. China's move was a surprise, though suggestions of any coordinated action were played down.
Unlike its counterparts in the West, the central bank still has plenty of room to cut borrowing costs. The benchmark one-year bank lending rate is at 6 percent while one-year deposit rate is at 3 percent, while the RRR level remains at 20 percent -- among the highest in the world.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, still expects one or two cuts in RRR and another interest rates cut by year-end.
NO URGENCY
As long as the labor market holds up, economists say Beijing will not be overly concerned about a growth slowdown.
China launched a massive stimulus plan four years ago after at least 20 million Chinese lost their jobs in a matter of months as world trade ground to a halt.
But the labor market has proved to be more resilient this time round, with economists pointing to an expanding service sector, which is diversifying growth away from the vulnerable export sector and creating plenty of new jobs.
While expectations of central bank moves have been dialed back, investors' focus has shifted to prospects for more fiscal stimulus measures, which already are gaining pace.
Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it had approved over $150 billion worth of infrastructure projects, but analysts remain skeptical about any quick impact on economic growth as the projects still need time to get funding and start construction.
Premier Wen Jiabao said on Tuesday that Beijing was in fiscal surplus of about 1 trillion yuan ($157.9 billion) in the year to date and if needed the government could utilize a 100 billion yuan fiscal stability fund to boost growth.
Wen also said the economy remains on track to meet the government's annual 7.5 percent growth target.
China still created 8.1 million new jobs during the first seven months of 2012, up 5 percent from a year earlier, he added. The tally was 90 percent of the annual target of 9 million set by the government at the beginning of the year.
"They don't really have any urgency (in policy easing) at this point. They keep the power dry and they will respond if things get worse," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING in Singapore.
"The economy is not doing great, but it's not doing that badly."
Still, even if activity rebounds modestly in the fourth quarter, it would drag full-year economic growth to below 8 percent, a level never seen since 1999.
INFLATION IN FOCUS
The central bank needs to tread carefully amid signs that its earlier policy easing has fanned property price rises that have triggered public anxiety.
That's probably why the PBOC has so far defied expectations for more aggressive moves since its last interest rate cut in July. Instead, it is opting to use reverse repos to inject short-term money into the banking system.
Housing prices, rebounded on a monthly basis for the second straight months in July, following eight consecutive months of declines, while annual inflation accelerated to 2 percent in August from a 30-month low of 1.8 percent in July.
"The key dilemma for policymakers is that inflation looks like it will pick up earlier than expected, while a growth recovery coming later than expected," said Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.
"I think the central bank will probably do a little bit more (on easing), depending on how the economy is doing. Realistically, the economy is going to rebound but certainly not going to rebound significantly."
The PBOC may keep policy settings unchanged until the fourth quarter, when growth may stabilize or even recover due to the lagging impact of policy stimulus, according to government economist familiar with the policy-making process.
"We don't expect any major changes in macro-economic policy in the run up to the 18th Party Congress and the fundamental tone for monetary policy remains prudent," Wang Jun, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a Beijing-based think-tank, told Reuters.
"Policymakers have drawn a lesson from the past and don't want to stimulate economic growth aggressively," he said, referring to concerns that too much stimulus could re-ignite inflationary pressures.
The 18th Communist Party Congress, at which China's next top leaders are likely to be unveiled, is set for October.
Under the banner of policy 'fine-tuning", the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July and lowered banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) three times since late 2011, freeing an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan for boosting loans.
"The chances of policy easing are slim in the near term, but we cannot rule out a cut in RRR or interest rates," said You Hongye, an economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.
相关中文资料
市场预计美国联邦储备委员会(FED,美联储)本周将推出新一轮的购债计划.这令外界揣测中国或亦将很快放松政策来支撑其不断放缓的经济.
但分析师称,认为中国人民银行将很快行动的投资者可能要失望了,中国只有极小的可能性会追随美联储很快推出自身的宽松措施.
市场能够期待出现的最好结果也就是进一步下调存款准备金率(RRR),但立即采取该行动或者甚至直接下调利率的可能性很低,因近期房地产市场和通胀回升盖过放宽政策的紧迫性.
此外,与2008/09年的全球性危机不同,中国的就业市场仍保持平稳,这部分是由於经济和人口结构的改变.
市场可能是低估了中国政府今年对经济成长放慢的容忍度.只要经济放缓不是过於剧烈,而且不会在18大会议之前引发社会动荡,中国政府可以容忍.
据周三发布的最新路透调查显示,中国经济成长在第三季度将进一步放慢,但随着稍早宽松政策的效果开始完全显现,经济会在年底重获部分动能.
不过,即使第四季经济活动温和反弹,全年经济增速仍会跌落至8%以下,可能创下1999年来最低增速.
通胀仍是焦点
人行需要极其小心,因为有迹象显示稍早的政策宽松已经推动房地产价格上涨,并且引发公众的担忧.
这可能也是为什麽人行继上次7月降息以来,迟迟不肯采取更有力行动的原因.相反,人行选择通过逆回购向金融系统注入短期流动性.
楼市价格在八个月连降之後,7月连续第二个月环比上涨,8月年通胀率也由7月的30个月低点1.8%上升至2%.
"决策者面临的主要难题是,通胀反弹似乎比预期来得要早,而增长复苏又比预期来得晚,"巴克莱资本驻香港亚洲新兴市场首席经济学家黄一平表示.
"我认为央行可能将视经济状况,(在放宽政策方面)再稍微采取一些行动.实际上,经济将会出现反弹,但肯定幅度不会很大."
熟悉决策过程的政府经济学家表示,中国人民银行可能会维持政策不变直至第四季,届时由於刺激政策的延迟效应,经济增速可能企稳,或者甚至反弹.
"我们预计,18大召开前宏观经济政策将不会发生重大变化,而且货币政策的基调仍将为审慎,"中国国际经济交流中心(CCIEE)的资深经济学家王军对路透表示.
他说,"政策制定者们已从过去汲取教训,不希望强烈刺激经济增长."暗指当局担心过度刺激可能会重燃通胀压力.
中国共产党18大会议料将在10月举行,届时中国新一届领导层可能亮相.
在政策"微调"的名义下,中国人民银行於6月和7月两度下调利率.而且自2011年末以来三次调降银行存款准备金率,释放货币约1.2万亿(兆)元人民币.
"短期内放松政策的机率很小,但我们无法排除调降准备金率或基准利率的可能性,"中国安信证券的分析师尤宏业表示.
意外行动?
预测中国何时调整货币政策,可谓一项艰巨的任务,因中国央行不像西方国家央行那样定期召开政策会议,而且过去的行动曾屡次让市场大感意外.
一种很小的可能性,就是中国或选择下调银行存款储备金率或利率,以此作为全球政策协作支撑世界经济的部分努力,特别是若美联储周四结束两日会议时祭出第三轮量化宽松(QE3)来助推美国复苏.
7月初,中国、欧元区和英国的央行短短数小时内相继放松货币政策,暗示其对全球经济的警戒级别提高.中国的行动令人意外,但联合行动的意味被淡化.
和西方央行不同,中国央行仍拥有下调借款成本的充裕空间.中国一年期存贷款利率分别为3%和6%,存款准备金率维持在20%--为全球最高者之一.
中国国际金融有限公司(CICC)首席经济学家彭文生仍预计,年底前降准一到两次,并再降息一次.
不着急
分析师表示,只要就业市场保持稳定,北京当局就不会太担心经济成长放缓.
四年前全球贸易接近停滞,数月内近2,000万中国人失业,随後中国推出大规模刺激计划.
但这次就业市场更具韧性.分析师指出,服务业扩张,降低了经济成长对脆弱的出口行业的依赖,并创造了大量就业.
虽然对人行采取行动的预期降温,但投资者转而关注中国可能出台更多财政刺激措施.政府现已加紧准备财政刺激手段.
发改委上周宣布,已批准基建项目的规模超过1,500亿美元.但分析师仍怀疑这不会给经济成长带来任何立竿见影的效果,因为这些项目仍需要时间来筹集资金和开始建设.
国务院总理温家宝周二表示,政府到7月底收支相抵还有1万亿元余额,历年结余的还有1千多亿元稳定调节基金.
温家宝还表示,中国经济增速仍然保持在年初预定的7.5%目标区间之内.
他还表示,今年前七个月新创造就业岗位810万个,较上年同期增加5%.这个数字是政府年初所设900万目标的90%.
"当前他们真的不着急(放宽政策).他们时刻做好准备,如果情况恶化,他们会做出响应,"荷兰国际集团亚洲研究主管Tim Condon说.
"经济表现不是太好,但也没有那麽差."
