The Federal Reserve will not waver from its aggressive policy stance when one of its two bond-buying programs expires at year end, and it is prepared to do even more to get Americans back to work, two Fed officials said on Tuesday.
The U.S. central bank, which last week launched a potentially massive policy-easing effort with no set end date, will closely watch the ailing labor market for meaningful signs of improvement, the Fed policymakers said.
In response to lackluster economic growth that has not been enough to drive the unemployment rate down from levels above 8 percent, the Fed headed deeper into uncharted policy territory with a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3.
William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said the economy needed a "nudge in the right direction," while Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed, predicted the central bank will keep buying assets at its current $85 billion-per-month pace into the new year.
"If the economy is weaker, we'll do more" asset purchases, said Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a key barometer of the thinking inside the central bank. "If the economy is stronger and we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market sooner, we'll end up doing less."
Dudley, addressing the Morris County Chamber of Commerce in New Jersey, added: "If you're trying to get a car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don't stop pushing the moment the wheels start turning - you keep pushing until the car is rolling and is clearly free."
Last week the Fed said it plans to buy $40 billion every month in mortgage-backed securities until the labor market outlook improves substantially.
The purchases come on top of an existing stimulus program in which the central bank buys about $45 billion a month in long-term Treasuries while selling the same amount of short-term Treasuries. That program, dubbed Operation Twist and designed to drive down long-term borrowing rates such as mortgages, runs through the end of 2012.
Evans, who has long advocated such aggressive action by the Fed, said he would be surprised if there is enough evidence by year-end to halt Treasury purchases altogether.
"Under those conditions, I would expect we would continue with something like an $85 billion base of purchases ... that's a benchmark to start from," he told reporters after a speech in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The Fed in late 2008 slashed interest rates to near zero and has since bought $2.3 trillion in securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades. Yet the recovery, especially in jobs, has been slow, leading the central bank to say it expects to keep rates at rock bottom at least through mid 2015.
Wall Street economists have been trying to pinpoint exactly what conditions would constitute a "substantial" improvement in the outlook for the labor market, which the Fed last week suggested would halt the new money-printing program.
Addressing this question, Dudley said the Fed will watch all corners of the labor market, including payroll growth, the number of Americans who have given up the hunt for work, the employment-to-population-ratio and job-finding rates, as well as the broader measure of unemployment.
At year end, further purchases of Treasuries will depend on an assessment of costs and benefits and on labor improvement, said Dudley, who as head of the important New York regional Fed bank has a permanent vote on Fed policy.
Ultimately, the Fed is looking for a stronger recovery alongside stable prices, said Dudley. "When that finally materializes, I'll view it as consistent with the result we are trying to achieve, and not a reason to pull back our policies prematurely," he added.
INTERNAL POLICY RIFTS
Fed policymakers broadly agree that U.S. unemployment is much too high; most also agree that inflation, which has hovered near the Fed's 2 percent target, is well under control. But there continue to be deep rifts within the central bank over the best policy response.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a forceful opponent of further easing, said he would have dissented last week if he had a vote on the bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
"I would argue that it is less impactful right now because you have other things inhibiting businesses from making decisions on capex and employment," Fisher told CNBC. "I don't think this program will have much efficacy."
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, expressed a similar sentiment. While he has been less skeptical than Fisher about the use of bond buys as a stimulus option, Bullard told Reuters he did not think the economic data sufficiently weak to warrant the latest round of monetary easing.
"I would have voted against it based on the timing. I didn't feel like we had a good enough case to make a major move at this juncture," said Bullard, who is not a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee.
"We should take a little bit more (of a) wait and see posture. I think that constellation of economic data doesn't really dictate the decision that we made."
Only one of the 12 Fed voting policymakers dissented against QE3, which came very close to a plan Evans has advocated for the past year: a vow to keep rates low until unemployment drops below 7 percent or inflation threatens to top 3 percent, and to buy bonds if progress on jobs is not fast enough.
"I am optimistic that we can achieve better outcomes through more monetary policy accommodation," Evans told a business breakfast sponsored by the Bank of Ann Arbor. "This is the time to act," he said, adding that asset purchases could begin to taper in 2014 if the labor market improves as he expects.
Evans cast the debate over monetary policy as one between optimists who believe further easing can deliver a stronger economy, and pessimists who say it will only spark inflation. Pessimists have warned for years about higher inflation, only to have their predictions fall short, he said.
Risks abound that could send the U.S. economy back into recession, he said, citing a potential global slowdown, spillover from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the looming "fiscal cliff."
"We cannot be complacent and assume that the economy is not being damaged if no action is taken," Evans said.
相关中文资料
两名美国联邦储备委员会(FED,美联储)官员周二表示,当两项购债计划中的一项在年底到期後,美联储的积极政策立场不会动摇.
美联储决策者表示,美联储将密切关注疲弱的就业市场,寻找有意义的改善迹象.美联储上周宣布了一项潜在规模巨大的政策宽松计划,而且没有设定截止日期.
美国经济成长乏力,难以压低目前在8%以上的失业率.为此,美联储推出了第三轮量化宽松(QE3),进一步深入前所未有的政策地带.
纽约联邦储备银行总裁杜德利表示,美国经济需要"在正确的方向上推一把".而美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯预测,美联储明年亦将保持目前每月买进850亿美元资产的速度.
杜德利称,"如果经济更加疲弱,我们将祭出更多"资产购买行动.杜德利是美联储主席伯南克的亲密盟友,他的立场是反映美联储内部想法的关键线索."如果经济成长较快增强且就业市场前景明显改善,我们最终购买的资产就会较少."
杜德利在新泽西演讲时表示,"如果你试图使陷入泥淖里的汽车动起来,你不会在车轮刚开始转动就不推了--你将一直推,直至汽车开动并完全脱离泥淖."
上周美联储称,计划每月购买400亿美元抵押支持债券(MBS),直到就业前景明显改善。
这一购买计划是在现有的卖短买长刺激计划的基础上祭出的.在卖短买长计划中,美联储每月购买大约450亿美元的长期公债,同时卖出同等数量的短期公债,这一计划被称为扭转操作,旨在拉低抵押贷款利率等长期借贷利率,将於2012年底到期.
埃文斯称,如果到年底有足够的证据显示可以完全停止公债购买计划,他将感到意外.埃文斯长期主张美联储应积极购买公债.
"在这些情况下,我预计将保持某些行动,比如850亿美元的基本购买规模...这是一个起始标准,"他在密西根演讲後对记者表示.
美联储上周表示,若就业市场前景"明显"改善将会停止新的印钞计画.华尔街分析师试图想确认何种情况才是所谓的"明显"改善.
杜德利在回应这个问题时说,美联储将观察就业市场的各个层面,包括就业成长、放弃求职的美国人数量、就业与人口之比、就职率、以及广义的失业指标.
杜德利说年底时美联储是否更进一步买进美国公债,将视成本及效益、以及劳动市场的评估而定.杜德利是对美联储决策具有永久投票权的纽约联邦储备银行的总裁.
他表示,最终美联储寻求经济复苏增强同时物价稳定."当这个目标最终实现时,我认为那就是达到了我们想要的结果,而不是贸然收回政策的理由."他说.
内部政策歧见
美联储决策官员普遍同意美国失业率太高,大多数成员也同意通胀仍稳稳受控.不过对於美联储该以何种政策来因应才是上策,决策者内部意见分歧.
达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁费希尔说,如果他今年在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)有投票权,上周的美联储会议他会投下反对票.费希尔是坚决反对更加放宽政策的那一派.
"我将认为目前采取的宽松行动不太奏效,因有其他事情正妨碍企业作出资本支出和雇聘方面的决策,"费希尔向美国国家广播公司商业新闻台(CNBC)表示."我不认为该计划会取得很大成效."
圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德表达了类似的观点.尽管布拉德对动用购债举措作为刺激选项的质疑一直没有费希尔那麽严重,他向路透表示,经济数据并未十分疲弱到有必要祭出最新一轮量化宽松政策的程度.
"我会因为行动时机而投票反对.我感觉,我们没有足够理由在目前情况下作出重大举措,"布拉德说,他今年不是美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的投票委员.
"我们本应采取略微等待观望的态度.我认为,经济数据并未主导我们作出的决定."
美联储12位投票委员中,仅有一人对QE3持有异议,这非常接近於去年埃文斯提出的计划:誓言维持低利率,直到失业率降至7%以下或通胀率行将突破3%,若就业形势改善不够快则买入公债.
"我对联储通过更多宽松货币政策能实现更好的结果感到乐观,"埃文斯在Bank of Ann Arbor主办的商界早餐会上表示,"目前是采取行动的良机",他并称若就业市场一如他预期般改善,2014年资产购买行动可开始逐渐减少.
埃文斯的货币政策立场较为中性,乐观者相信进一步放松政策能促使美国经济更为强劲,悲观者认为此举只会引发通货膨胀.他说,悲观者多年来一直对通胀升高发出警告,但他们的预言落空.
他说,诸多风险恐将拖累美国经济重新陷入衰退,包括全球经济可能放缓,欧洲主权债务危机蔓延和美国正濒临"财政悬崖"等.
埃文斯表示,"我们不能自满并假设即便不采取行动,经济也不会受创."
