萨科齐恐难连任
France’s bling bling era is nearing its end
The first round results in the French presidential race were much as predicted. The nightmare of a second round pitting Francois Hollande against Marine Le Pen has been avoided. Now the real contest begins, with at least one head-to-head televised debate to come, which will give Nicolas Sarkozy the chance to prove to the electorate that his claims about Mr Hollande’s inexperience and irresponsibility have substance.
法国总统大选首轮投票结果基本符合预期。第二轮投票中弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(Francois Hollande)对阵马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的恶梦得以避免。现在，真正的对决开始了，两位候选人至少会举行一场面对面的电视辩论，这将让尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)有机会向选民证明，他所说的奥朗德缺乏经验和没有责任心并非空穴来风。
But though the headline outcome was as expected, the campaign so far has told us several things. First, there is a lack of positive enthusiasm for both principal candidates. The French have never warmed to Mr Sarkozy. He lacks a certain je ne sais quoi, as the English are wont to say. He has not grown into the office of President, so incumbency has been of little assistance to him so far. Yet though he led in round one, Mr Hollande has not been able to capitalise on this weakness as effectively as he might. The strenuous and successful campaign mounted by Jean-Luc Melenchon on the far left has shown that his grip on the left of centre coalition he needs to mobilise is less than secure.
但是，尽管这一广受关注的投票结果符合预期，迄今为止的竞选活动却告诉了我们很多事情。首先，法国选民对两位主要候选人都缺乏足够的热情。法国人从来对萨科齐不感冒。正如英国人常说的，他缺乏某种难以描述的魅力。他未能适应总统角色，因此现任总统的身份迄今对他没有帮助。而奥朗德尽管在首轮投票中领先，但他未能有效利用萨科齐的这种不足。极左翼的让-吕克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)发起的劲头十足的成功竞选活动表明，奥朗德对其需要争取的中左翼联盟选票的掌握并非板上钉钉。
The distribution of votes shows that there are many disaffected voters, who do not feel that their views are well represented by the mainstream parties. Many French would wish the world to be other than it is, and hanker after a version of “socialism in one country” or a monochrome 1950s paradise. Hollande was pulled to the left on economic and fiscal policy by Melenchon, just as Sarkozy was pulled to the right by Le Pen on immigration and social matters.
选票的分散表明，许多心怀不满的选民认为主流党派没有很好地代表他们的观点。许多法国人希望这个世界有所改变，渴望某种版本的“一国社会主义”或者上世纪50年代的单色天堂。在经济和财政政策上，奥朗德被梅朗雄拉到了左翼立场，正如在移民和社会问题上，萨科齐被勒庞拉到了右翼立场。
The question now is whether Hollande has done enough to entice all the Melenchon militants to rally to his cause, rather than staying at home, while not alienating the centrist votes he needs. Mr Melenchon has helped with a clear endorsement. For Mr Sarkozy the balancing act is between persuading the National Front’s supporters, more numerous than expected, to see him as their best bet and securing the lion’s share of the votes that went to Francois Bayrou of the Democrtaic Movement. The arithmetic suggests that he can only win if he pulls in the great majority of both groups – a tall order.
目前的问题是，奥朗德是否做了足够多的努力——而不是呆在家里——将梅朗雄的积极支持者都拉到他的阵营中来，同时不疏远他所需要的持中间立场的选民。梅朗雄已经明确表示支持奥朗德。对萨科齐而言，平衡做法是说服国民阵线(National Front)的支持者(人数多于预期)把他作为最佳押注，并从曾支持民主运动党(Democratic Movement)的弗朗索瓦•贝鲁(Francois Bayrou)的选民那里获得大部分选票。计算表明，萨科齐只有拉到这两派的大多数选票才会获胜，这太难做到了。
