| 商家名称 | 信用等级 | 购买信息 | 订购本书 |
 |
 |
Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Climate Change and Energy in the 21st Century |  |
 |
|
Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Climate Change and Energy in the 21st Century | |
网友对Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Climate Change and Energy in the 21st Century的评论
The author, a prominent physicist and former director of a major physics research lab, who has spent the past decade looking into the facts on which the climate change debate rests, has written a book summarizing the scientific basis for concerns about the changing climate, evaluating the various technical solutions that have been proposed, and summarizing his view on a workable policy for dealing with the situation. We are unlikely to have a more qualified reviewer of this vital issue.
The earth's climate depends on a delicate, nonlinear energy balance between incident energy from the sun and energy re-radiated outside the earth's atmosphere. The incident energy absorbed in the earth's surface depends on the distance from the sun, which is determined by the earth's orbit, and on the fraction of the incident energy that is not reflected by the atmosphere or the earth itself. The amount of energy radiated by the earth depends on the earth's temperature and on the fraction of that re-radiated energy not reabsorbed in the earth's atmosphere. Some carbon gases in the atmosphere--carbon dioxide and methane--strongly absorb energy at the frequencies it is re-radiated from the earth, producing a greenhouse effect for the entire planet. The earth's surface temperature must adjust so that the incident and outgoing energy fluxes are balanced. Antarctic ice-core data exhibit a remarkable correlation of CO2 concentration and temperature over 400,000 years, with a sharp increase in both since the beginning of the industrial revolution.
Atmospheric carbon pollution is predominantly the result of producing energy. Oil, coal and natural gas produce 82% of the world's Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and 100% of the world's CO2 emissions. If the world's growing energy needs continue to be met primarily by fossil fuels, the carbon concentration in the atmosphere will continue to increase, with predictable dire consequences, and the affordably recoverable supply of fossil fuels will be depleted by 2100.
Models for future temperature increases, based on projected energy requirements being met largely by fossil fuels, predict increases of 4-9 degrees F by 2100, which will raise the sea level by 2-4 feet (putting Florida under water and eliminating the snowfall that provides California's water, among other disasters). If the melting of the arctic ice fields releases the methane (CH4-- a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2) in the underlying permafrost, matters would be catastrophically worse. While the several models used to predict climate changes are based on state-of-the-art science and computational technology, and are calibrated to match past weather patterns, their accuracy will be known for certain only 30-40 years from now. However, all models used internationally predict an increasing temperature within the above range with `business as usual' continuation of fossil fuel use. The conclusion is unavoidable--we must start now to reduce, or at least not further increase, the carbon in the atmosphere, primarily by reducing or eliminating the burning of fossil fuels to meet the world's growing energy demands.
The end use of energy in the US is 40% for the production and operation of commercial and residential buildings, 32% for industry and 28% for transportation; the primary energy sources for which are today coal 18%, gas 27%, oil 36%, nuclear 8%, renewables (including wind and solar) 2%, biomass 5% and hydroelectric 3%. Substitution of emission-free fuels for fossil fuels is the obvious solution that should be implemented immediately. The author argues that Nuclear is a safe, low-risk source of the amount of power that is needed, while the Renewables (wind and solar) are intermittent in nature, generally not located where the power is needed (among other problems) and could never provide more than a small fraction of the energy required. He is skeptical about biomass (corn ethanol causes a net increase in carbon emission relative to gasoline), but believes that carbon sequestration (burying the CO2 instead of releasing it into the atmosphere) should be investigated as a stop-gap measure.
Economic, political, regulatory and policy issues that must be confronted are discussed. US government energy subsidies from 1950 through 2006 in the form of tax incentives for oil and gas, R&D for nuclear, etc. were oil $335B, gas $100B, coal $94B, hydro $80B, nuclear $65B, renewables $52B--a set of political priorities that must change.
This is an important book on a vital topic that must be of interest to all who are concerned about the planet that we will leave our grandchildren.
Well written and very informative with many links to climate changesites
First off, I'm a bit biased because Burton Richter is my father. I found the second edition to be an enjoyable, informative read, much like the first. (The first edition received the Phi Beta Kappa science book of the year award in 2011) A lot has changed since the first edition, and the evolution of the energy technologies is well covered. I found that there was enough new content when compared to the first edition it almost felt like a first read.
As always, facts are referenced and opinion is clearly indicated. If you are interested in the science behind the climate debate, you will find your time well spent reading this book.
The book was excellently written. I particularly appreciated Richter's clear demarcations between the science and the politics of climate change. This was especially true in his discussion of the increasing need for energy in a developing society, and the options for achieving this while meeting goals for reduced carbon emissions.
喜欢Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Climate Change and Energy in the 21st Century请与您的朋友分享,由于版权原因，读书人网不提供图书下载服务
