Like most Chinese leaders, Li Keqiang has had to have patience as he clambered up the ranks of the Communist party. Now, after 30 years, the man this week appointed premier has little time to lose. The world’s most populous country and second-largest economy is crying out for reform – and it is up to Mr Li to deliver.
像大多数中国领导人一样,李克强在中共系统内的升迁过程中不得不具备耐心。经过30年后,他最近被任命为中国国务院总理。如今,他没有多少时间可以浪费。世界第一人口大国兼第二大经济体迫切需要改革,这一使命已落到李克强的肩上。
In the carefully calibrated party hierarchy, he plays second fiddle to Xi Jinping, the new president. Yet while the head of state sets the overall direction of China’s 10-year leadership terms, it is the premier who is responsible for the economy. So it falls to 57-year-old Mr Li to answer a formidable chorus – from domestic liberals and private companies to foreign investors – calling on the new government to rein in the state’s dominant role in the economy, strengthen the rule of law and tame corruption.
在精心设计的党内权力等级体系中,李克强的地位仅次于新任国家主席习近平。不过,虽说国家元首将把握未来10年任期内的总体方向,但经济方面的管理权掌握在总理手中。因此也将由58岁的李克强来回应各界人士——从国内自由派人士到民营企业,再到外国投资者——异口同声地疾呼,人们要求新一届政府削弱国家在经济中的主导作用、加强法治和惩治腐败。
To many overseas, the past decade is the story of the remarkable ascent of an economic powerhouse. But inside the country there is talk of a “lost decade” and increasing disillusionment, especially among the urban middle classes, over rising property prices, pollution and an overbearing state. The leadership must fix this or face the prospect that China’s largely peaceful rise will become more problematic.
在许多海外人士眼里,过去十年让他们见证了一个经济大国非凡崛起的历程。但在中国国内,有一些声音却在谈论“失去的十年”,失落感日益深重,在城市中产阶层当中尤为如此,人们对房地产价格飞涨、环境污染和威权政府感到不满。新一届领导人必须解决这个问题,否则中国的“基本和平崛起”将面临更大的问题。
Mr Li appears to recognise the need for change. At his first cabinet meeting this week, it was decided that all ministries must “solidly advance reform, and let the people see practical results through a series of real achievements”. Following a meeting with the premier this week, Jack Lew, the new US Treasury secretary, said it is “clear” China “has made a clear commitment to their reform agenda” – before adding that the challenge would lie in delivering “material progress”.
李克强似乎认识到了改革的必要性。他上周第一次主持召开国务院常务会议,会上要求各部委必须“扎实推进改革,以一批实实在在的成果让人民群众见到实效”。美国新任财政部长杰克??卢(Jack Lew)上周与李克强会晤后表示,“很明显”,中国“已明确承诺要推进改革议程”。但他又接着说道,挑战就在于如何取得“实质性进展”。
This is not a first time a new premier has promised change. Ten years ago, Wen Jiabao, Mr Li’s predecessor, pledged to make the economy more equitable, humane and sustainable. He failed to deliver. By the time he left office his pleas for political reform had become little more than reminders of inertia.
新任总理承诺推进改革,这在中国并非第一次。十年之前,李克强的前任温家宝承诺要让经济朝着更加公正、人性化和可持续的方向发展。但他没能实现目标。到离任时,他对于政治改革的呼吁不过是让人们体会到了惯性的力量。
Reformers hope Mr Li will be in the mould of Zhu Rongji, premier from 1998 to 2003 and architect of some of the country’s boldest reforms, including a large-scale privatisation programme. Such expectations have been heightened by the elevation of Mr Zhu’s former underlings to critical positions in the new cabinet. They include Lou Jiwei, former head of the sovereign wealth fund, who has been named finance minister.
改革派希望李克强有朱镕基之风。1998年至2003年间任总理期间,朱镕基主持实施了一些中国最大胆的改革,包括推进一项大规模的私有化方案。朱镕基的多名前部属如今在国务院任关键岗位,这加深了人们的期待。他们中包括获任财政部长的中国主权财富基金前董事长楼继伟。
But Mr Li himself is also seen as something of a new type of leader. “In many ways, you have the first premier who has received systematic training in economics,” says Yang Dali of the University of Chicago.
但李克强本人也被视为一位新型的领导人。芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的杨大力表示:“他是中国第一位接受过系统经济学教育的总理。”
Born in 1955 in Dingyuan, central China, Mr Li came of age during the cultural revolution. Like many of his generation he was sent, aged 19, to the countryside to do manual labour. But unlike those a few years older, the option of higher education was open to him as universities began to accept undergraduates again. Competition for places was fierce but, in 1977, he was one of the lucky ones to win a place at Peking University Law School alongside only two other men from Anhui, his then poor home province, where his father was an official.
李克强1955年出生于华中地区的安徽定远县,成年时正逢“文化大革命”。像同时代的许多人一样,他在19岁时被送到乡下从事体力劳动。但不同于年纪较大的知青,大学恢复招生时,接受高等教育的大门向李克强打开了。尽管竞争十分激烈,但在1977年,他成为安徽省被北京大学法律系录取的三名幸运儿之一。当时安徽省非常贫穷,他父亲是当地一名官员。
“From the beginning he was interested in economic law and he tried to acquire practical knowledge by getting a position as a trainee in China International Trust and Investment Corporation – the only window to the world in the late 1970s,” says Tao Jingzhou, one of the other two from Anhui, now a partner at Dechert Law Firm in Beijing.
当年考上北大法律系的三名安徽人之一、美国德杰律师事务所(Dechert Law Firm)驻北京合伙人陶景洲表示:“从一开始,他就对经济法很感兴趣,并努力通过在中国国际信托投资公司(Citic)实习的机会积累实务知识,这家公司在上世纪70年代是中国通往世界的唯一窗口。”
Mr Li read A.V. Dicey, an expert on British constitutional law, and helped translate the “Process of Law” by Lord Denning, an influential British judge. After his law degree, he acquired a PhD in economics. His academic path sets him apart from earlier leaders, many of whom were engineers.
李克强阅读英国宪法专家戴雪(A.V.Dicey)的书,并参与翻译了英国著名法官丹宁勋爵(Lord Denning)所著的《法律的正当程序》(Due Process of Law)一书。获得法学学位之后,李克强又攻读了经济学博士学位。这一学术路径使他有别于早期领导人,他们大多为工程师出身。
This distinction feeds some of the criticism of Mr Li. “Look at his record, and you will know that he has a serious problem with execution,” says a western executive in Beijing. “He has none of the determination Zhu Rongji had.”
但这也让李克强受到了一些批评。一位西方企业高管表示:“看过他的履历后,你会发现他在执行方面有很大问题。他没有朱镕基那样的决断力。”
Friends say that Mr Li has always been quiet and cautious. Even in pictures from his student days, he tends to appear on the margins. “At that time he was a very quiet and low-profile guy – in group discussions, he would be the very last to talk and he was actually quite shy; certainly not outspoken or aggressive,” recalls Mr Tao.
朋友们表示,李克强一向慎言、慎行。在学生时代的合照中,他习惯站在边上。陶景洲回忆道,那个时候他沉默寡言、低调,在集体讨论时,他总是最后一个发言,而且不活跃;从来不会口无遮拦,或者咄咄逼人。
The standard career path for officials may have reinforced that tendency. The long march through the various layers of party and government bureaucracy taught Mr Li to bide his time and keep a low profile. A party member since his days in rural Anhui, he rose through the Communist Youth League. This made him a protégé of Hu Jintao, Mr Xi’s predecessor, who dominates the youth league faction, one of the main groups in the party. He acquired a reputation for loyalty, but not without a pragmatic touch. In 1989 he helped persuade Peking University students from joining the protests at Tiananmen and later did not actively persecute demonstrators.
中国官员的标准升迁路径可能也强化了李克强的这个特点。在不同党政岗位轮换工作的长久经历,教会了他要等待时机和保持低调。他在安徽农村时就入了党,通过在共青团工作不断得到升迁。这让他成了胡锦涛的“门生”,作为习近平前任,胡锦涛是中共内部主要势力之一“团派”的领袖。李克强获得了忠诚的名声,但他也不乏务实作风。1989年,他帮助劝说北大学生不要去天安门广场抗议,后来也没有积极打击示威者。
In 1998, Mr Li continued his ascent through provincial governor and party secretary posts in the populous central province of Henan and the northeastern rust belt of Liaoning, before becoming a member of the politburo, and its powerful Standing Committee in 2007.
从1998年起,李克强历任河南省委副书记、省长、省委书记和辽宁省委书记等职,其中河南是中部人口大省,而辽宁是东北老工业基地,是一个“锈带”省份。2007年,李克强进入中共中央政治局,并成为掌握实权的政治局常委会的一名成员。