实名制期限已过 中国微博暂时无事
Microblogs Survive Real-Name RulesSo Far
The deadline for real-name registration on China’s Twitter-like microblogging sites has come and gone and, to the relief of some, has been uneventful. Users who haven’t verified their identities can still post messages on their microblogs, called weibo in Chinese. Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo are still up and running, despite a recent crackdown on content.
中国微博网站实行实名注册的最后期限已经过去，一切都还正常，这让一些人松了一口气。没有验证身份的用户仍然可以发表微博信息。虽然最近采取了内容整顿措施，但新浪微博和腾讯微博仍在正常服务。
But Sina Corp. has escalated its warnings to investorsthat the rules requiring weibo sites to verify the identities of users remain a major threat to the future of weibo. The company’s annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this month added the real-name rules to an already long list of regulatory risks that come with owning an Internet business in China.
不过新浪公司进一步向投资者发出预警说，政府要求微博网站验证用户身份的规定，仍然是微博未来面临的重大威胁。这是新浪在本月提交给美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)的年度报告中说的。在实名制之外，持股中国互联网企业的投资者还面临着一系列监管风险。
’We are required to, but have not, verified the identities of all our users who post on Weibo,’ it said. ’Our noncompliance exposes us to potentially severe punishment by the Chinese government.’
新浪说：我们被要求验证所有在微博上发帖用户的身份，但还没有全面落实;由于没有遵守规定，我们可能会受到中国政府的严厉惩罚。
’We believe successful implementation of user identity verification needs to be done over a long period of time ... If the Chinese government enforces compliance in the near term, such action may severely reduce Weibo traffic,’ the filing continued. It added that the identity-verification is already deterring new users already from completing registration on Weibo, and that of those who do go through with the process, a ’significant portion’ are ’rejected by the Chinese government database.’
年报说：我们相信，成功实施用户身份验证需要很长一段时间才能完成;如果中国政府强制要求短期内遵守规定，则微博流量可能会明显下降。年报还说，身份验证已经在打击新用户完成微博注册的热情，而在完成注册的用户中，又有很大一部分被中国政府的数据库拒绝。
Bill Bishop, a Beijing-based Chinese Internet watcher, said investors should heed the company’s warning. ’Investors who think there is no regulatory risk, or that real name is an expired issue, are kidding themselves, especially in the current political environment,’ he said. Too many ’blithely assume that the government is afraid of what would happen if they shut weibo, and so they never will.’
身在北京的中国互联网观察人士利明璋(Bill Bishop)认为，投资者应当留意新浪的预警。他说，投资者如果觉得没有监管风险，或者实名制是一个过时问题，那么他们就是在开自己的玩笑，何况是在当前政治环境之中。他说，太多投资者轻率地认为，政府因为害怕关掉微博产生的后果，所以绝对不会关掉微博。
