19.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: foolishfatty ) 某个Airline的一个调查，只有1%不到的人对他们的baggage-landing procedures有抱怨。因此得出结论，不需要review他的流程就可以维持和增加客户。
原题：
The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
Avia航空的部门备忘录：
平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。
参考思路：
1. Gratuitous assumption：因为1%写了投诉信就假设只有1%的客人不满，就假设主体满意，不对
2. All things are equal:去年的调查不能代表未来
3. False causal relationship：因为满意度和乘客数量无因果关系，不能把这当作确定目标的因素
4. Either or choice:因为1%不写投诉信就说另一半是满意的不对，也有很多乘客可以表示不满意但没有写投诉信
参考范文：
The conclusion in this Avia Airlines memorandum is that a review of the airline’s baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. The author’s line of reasoning is that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline because only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint about Avia’s procedures. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
First, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline’s baggage-handling procedures. However, the author provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on the average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers’ attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.
Secondly, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircraft carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The author unfairly trivializes this record. Moreover, the author fails to compare Avia’s record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia’s one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.
In conclusion, the author has failed to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling procedures at Avia Airlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of Avia’s passengers. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least provide affirmative evidence that most Avia passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of Avia passengers per flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of Avia’s competitors.
20.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: queenieshieh ) 一个newsmagazine说Sacchar这个国家贸易逆差，所以需要将该国主要的出口产品sugar的价格降低，这样可以使出口增加，从而reduce Sacchar's trade deficit.
原题：
The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine：
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”
一份周刊上的文章：
Sacchar国解决其赤字的最好方法是降低其主要出口物糖的价格。这一举动将使Sacchar与其他糖出口国更好的竞争。Sacchar出口的糖将会增加，这一增长将实在地降低Sacchar的贸易赤字。
参考思路：
1、比起价格下降而带来的损失产量提高的影响是不是更大不是定数Increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yeild an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. in the absence of ...
2、可能性价比本来就很有竞争力了不需要降价，也可能价格已经很低了没有降低的空间了
3、降低进口可能是一个更好的办法A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar's trade deficit proplem. To the extent that this is the case...
参考范文：
(一)
The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar-exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar’s sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. The author’s argument relies on the assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar’s trade deficit problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchar’s sugar.
In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address. First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we cannot assess the author’s proposal.
In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.
(二)非常感谢giggs11~!
The author argues that lowering the price of sugar, the primary export of Sacchar, can help to substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit, because the lowering price can make Sacchar better able to compete with other sugar-exporting countries and thus the sale of sugar abroad will increase, which can help to reduce the trade deficit of the country. The claim seems appealing at a first glance, but after reflection we will find several flaws during the argument.
In the first place, the author assumes that the overall output of the sugar can be easily increased to meet the increasing demand due to the low price. However, no evidence in the argument supports that assumption. It is possible that the overall output of the sugar in Sacchar has already reached the maximum to achieve the maximum profit and it cannot be increased and more. Therefore the conclusion is weakened in this case because of the lower price and same output.
In the second place, the author assumes that the price of sugar can be lowered, which cannot be inferred from the argument as well. It is possible that there is little profit for the manufacture to produce sugar and if the price is cut any more there will be no profit to produce sugar in Sacchar. In this case, the conclusion is weakened as the lower price of sugar will cause no manufactures in Sacchar to produce sugar.
Furthermore, there is no essential link between the export and the trade deficit. The reduction of trade deficit can be achieved by decreasing import, which may be a easier solution to reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.
In conclusion, lowering price of the sugar in Sacchar will not necessarily lead to a reduction of Sacchar’s trade deficit. To strengthen the argument, the author needs to verify that there is no other solutions to reduce trade deficit in Saccharand that both lowering price of sugar and increasing output of sugar can be easily achieved.
