14.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: yangzidana ) 题目是一篇DEPARTMENT STORE经理的文章。说因为LOCAL CLOTHING STORE的数据显示其利润在8.1-10.31期间平均呈下降状态，而相反，售卖product for home的店的报告则是利润在同一时期平均上升。因此说顾客们更愿意消费在家庭用品而非衣服上。所以为了利用好这一趋势，建议扩大home furnishing home product的departments的规模并且缩小clothing部门的规模。
原题:
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
参考思路：
1. False causal relationship:不能有家庭用品销售量上升就说顾客在选择.....
2. Either or choice:服装销售下降，家用销售增加就说....，太绝对，也有可能其他的都增加，就衣服销售减少了
3. All thing are equal：过去三个月的销量不能代表未来
4. Gratuitous assumption：因为这三个月的销售量就假设这个趋势，不对。假设缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部可以形成优势也不对。
参考范文：
Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.
15.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 妖狐藏马A): 作文是一个国家举办了足球赛，结果旅游人数上升，于是建议再举办运动会，这样会对国家的经济有好处。
考古：
V1: 关于一场国际soccer competition带来B国旅游者人数增长的短文
V2. The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.
V3. 一个B城市: 5年前hold a soccer competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办一次类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
V4. 一个岛国B 5年前开了一个足球比赛，最近三年内游客人数涨了25%。所以说为了促进更多的游客来，我们B应该举行更多的比赛。才能带了更多的游客数量和利润。
V5.大概是B地旅游发展局给出数据，几年前这里举办了大型soccer比赛，吸引了大量游客到访，同时刺激了当地经济发展。但后来经济又回落了，所以当局想继续举办大型的运动赛事来重新刺激经济发展
参考思路：
1. 错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2. 过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因
3.因果关系：不能因为一场球赛吸引了很多观众就要举办更多的比赛。首先举办比赛需要场地。足球比赛对场地的要求较低，但如果是举办体操，游泳等比赛，会花费大量的建厂成本，也许会超过收入。
4.论据以偏概全：不能因为一场球赛就说明所有的国际比赛都很吸引观众。也许是因为这场比赛的重要性和特殊性导致了其有很高的观众参与度，就像Olympic game一样。但是其他的国际比赛也许不能有这样的效果。
5.Either or 的选择：提高经济收入并不仅仅有通过举办比赛这样一种方式，还可以发展当地的旅游特色，挖掘作为一个island的特点，从而增加收入
