Moreover, the author's conclusion is also based on the assumption that the shopping mall has caused the increase in crime and vagrancy. However, it is not necessarily the case. Firstly, the increase in arrests for crime and vagrancy is not equal to the commits of crime and vagrancy. Lacking sufficient information, the author cannot preclude the possibility that the increase of arrests resulted from the more strict policy of arrests. Secondly, it is equally possible that the depression of economy is the true reason for the increasing crime and vagrancy.
Finally, even if the shopping mall did cause the closing of local business and the increasing crime and vagrancy in Oak City, the author's prediction that Elm City will suffer from the same fate as Oak City is still open to doubt. Without better evidence showing any similarity between the two cities, it is unwarranted to conclude that a shopping mall will lead to the same results in Elm City. Probably the Elm City has not enough shopping malls to meet the need of the citizens. Also, it is possible that the local businesses in Elm City have great competitive advantages and will not be forced to close by the shopping mall and that the police in Elm City are efficient in impeding the crime and vagrancy. If true, these differences may seriously undermine the conclusion based on the analogy between the two cities.
Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, the author should provide better evidence that (1) the closing the local businesses in Oak City is caused by the shopping mall (2) the shopping mall is the only reason for the increase in arrests for crime and vagrancy (3) Oak City and Elm City share enough similarities to suffer from the same fate.
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