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Some of the concerns surrounding Turkey's application to join the European Union, to be voted on by the EU's Council of Ministers on December 17 th, are economic-in particular, the country's relative poverty. Its GDP per head is less than a third of the average for the 15 pre-2004 members of the EU. But it is not far off that of one of the ten new members which joined on May 1st 2004 (Latvia), and it is much the same as those of two countries, Bulgaria and Romania, which this week concluded accession talks with the EU that could make them full members on January 1st 2007.
Furthermore, the country's recent economic progress has been, according to Donald Johnston, the secretary-general of the OECD, "stunning". GDP in the second quarter of the year was 13.4% higher than a year earlier, a rate of growth that no EU country comes close to matching. Turkey's inflation rate has just fallen into single figures for the first time since 1972, and this week the country reached agreement with the IMF on a new three-year, $10 billion economic programme that will, according to the IMF's managing director, Rodrigo Rato,"help Turkey... reduce inflation toward European levels, and enhance the economy's resilience".
Resilience has not historically been the country's economic strong point. As recently as 2001, GDP fell by over 7%. It fell by more than 5% in 1994, and by just under 5% in 1999. Indeed, throughout the 1990 s growth oscillated like an electrocardiogram recording a violent heart attack. This irregularity has been one of the main reasons (along with red tape and corruption) why the country has failed dismally to attract much-needed foreign direct investment. Its stock of such investment (as a percentage of GDP) is lower now than it was in the 1980 s, and annual inflows have scarcely ever reached $1 billion (whereas Ireland attracted over $25 billion in 2003, as did Brazil in every year from 1998 to 2000).
One deterrent to foreign investors is due to disappear on January 1st 2005. On that day, Turkey will take away the right of virtually every one of its citizens to call themselves a millionaire. Six noughts will be removed from the face value of the lira; one unit of the local currency will henceforth be worth what 1 m are now-ie, about
