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The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies |  |
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The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies | |
A New York Times Bestseller. A “fascinating” (Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times) look at how digital technology is transforming our work and our lives.
In recent years, Google’s autonomous cars have logged thousands of miles on American highways and IBM’s Watson trounced the best human Jeopardy! players. Digital technologies―with hardware, software, and networks at their core―will in the near future diagnose diseases more accurately than doctors can, apply enormous data sets to transform retailing, and accomplish many tasks once considered uniquely human.In The Second Machine Age MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee―two thinkers at the forefront of their field―reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives and our economy. As the full impact of digital technologies is felt, we will realize immense bounty in the form of dazzling personal technology, advanced infrastructure, and near-boundless access to the cultural items that enrich our lives.
Amid this bounty will also be wrenching change. Professions of all kinds―from lawyers to truck drivers―will be forever upended. Companies will be forced to transform or die. Recent economic indicators reflect this shift: fewer people are working, and wages are falling even as productivity and profits soar.
Drawing on years of research and up-to-the-minute trends, Brynjolfsson and McAfee identify the best strategies for survival and offer a new path to prosperity. These include revamping education so that it prepares people for the next economy instead of the last one, designing new collaborations that pair brute processing power with human ingenuity, and embracing policies that make sense in a radically transformed landscape.
A fundamentally optimistic book, The Second Machine Age alters how we think about issues of technological, societal, and economic progress.
媒体推荐“Optimistic and intriguing.” (Steven Pearlstein - The Washington Post)
“Excellent.” (Clive Cook - Bloomberg)
“Fascinating.” (Andrew Leonard - Salon)
“My favorite book so far of 2014. Both hopeful…and realistic.” (Joshua Kim - Inside Higher Education)
“Maddeningly reasonable and readable.” (Thomas Claburn - InformationWeek)
“Offers important insights into how digital technologies are transforming our economy, a process that has only just begun.” (Reid Hoffman, cofounder/chairman of LinkedIn and coauthor of the #1 New York Times bestseller The Start-up of You)
“Brynjolfsson and McAfee are right: we are on the cusp of a dramatically different world brought on by technology. The Second Machine Age is the book for anyone who wants to thrive in it. I’ll encourage all of our entrepreneurs to read it, and hope their competitors don’t.” (Marc Andreessen, cofounder of Netscape and Andreessen Horowitz)
“Technology is overturning the world’s economies, and The Second Machine Age is the best explanation of this revolution yet written.” (Kevin Kelly, senior maverick for Wired and author of What Technology Wants)
“What globalization was to the economic debates of the late 20th century, technological change is to the early 21st century. Long after the financial crisis and great recession have receded, the issues raised in this important book will be central to our lives and our politics.” (Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University)
“In this optimistic book Brynjolfsson and McAfee clearly explain the bounty that awaits us from intelligent machines. But they argue that creating the bounty depends on finding ways to race with the machine rather than racing against the machine. That means people like me need to build machines that are easy to master and use. Ultimately, those who embrace the new technologies will be the ones who benefit most.” (Rodney Brooks, chairman and CTO of Rethink Robotics, Inc)
“An important book on the technology-driven opportunities and challenges we all face in the next decade. Anyone who wants to understand how amazing new technologies are transforming our economy should start here.” (Austan Goolsbee, professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers)
“A brilliant look at the future that technology is bringing to our economic and social lives.?Read The Second Machine Age if you want to prepare yourself and your children for the world of work ahead.” (Zo? Baird, president, Markle Foundation)
“Will our new technologies lift us all up or leave more and more of us behind? The Second Machine Age is the essential guide to how and why that success will, or will not, be achieved.” (Garry Kasparov, thirteenth World Chess Champion)
“After reading this book, your world view will be flipped: you’ll see that collective intelligence will come not only from networked brains but also from massively connected and intelligent machines.” (Nicholas Negroponte, cofounder of the MIT Media Lab, founder of One Laptop per Child, and author of Being Digital)
“Truly helped me see the world of tomorrow through exponential rather than arithmetic lenses. Macro and microscopic frontiers now seem plausible, meaning that learners and teachers alike are in a perpetual mode of catching up with what is possible. It frames a future that is genuinely exciting!” (Clayton M. Christensen, Kim B. Clark Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School, and author of The Innovator’s Dilemma)
“This provocative book is both grounded and visionary, with highly approachable economic analyses that add depth to their vision. A must-read.” (John Seely Brown, coauthor of The Power of Pull and A New Culture of Learning)
“A whirlwind tour of innovators and innovations around the world. But this isn’t just casual sightseeing. Along the way, they describe how these technological wonders came to be, why they are important, and where they are headed.” (Hal Varian, chief economist at Google)
“Brynjolfsson and McAfee do an amazing job of explaining the progression of technology, giving us a glimpse of the future, and explaining the economics of these advances. And they provide sound policy prescriptions. Their book could also have been titled Exponential Economics 101―it is a must-read.” (Vivek Wadhwa, director of research at Duke University’s Pratt School of Engineering and author of The Immigrant Exodus)
“A masterful job of exploring both the promise of computer technology and its profound societal impact.” (Carl Bass, CEO of Autodesk)
Erik Brynjolfsson is the director of the MIT Center for Digital Business and one of the most cited scholars in information systems and economics. He is a cofounder of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, along with Andrew McAfee. He and McAfee are the only people named to both the Thinkers 50 list of the world’s top management thinkers and the Politico 50 group of people transforming American politics.
Andrew McAfee is a principal research scientist at the MIT Center for Digital Business and the author of Enterprise 2.0. He is a cofounder of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, along with Erik Brynjolfsson. He and Brynjolfsson are the only people named to both the Thinkers 50 list of the world’s top management thinkers and the Politico 50 group of people transforming American politics.
网友对The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies的评论
首先书标注是320页，实际上内容只有260页，而且字体偏大，比文学作品的大很多（如图），内容如果你关注科技其实没有特别新的东西，就是谷歌的自动驾驶汽车等，个人觉得有价值的地方可能只最后几章，智能机器时代人应该发展哪些方面的能力。
In "The Second Machine Age," Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that as technology advances exponentially and combinatorially it is taking us into an entirely new era. In the future we can expect more of everything, including both tangible goods and digital products and services, at lower and lower prices. They call this "Bounty." There is a dark side as well, however. Machines and computers are increasingly substituting for routine human labor, and technology is a major driver of increased inequality. The authors call this "Spread".
In addition to this book, I'd also strongly suggest reading The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future. That book takes a somewhat longer view and asks where all this will lead in the coming decades. The answers and the proposed solutions are less conventional and more controversial.
The Second Machine Age gives many examples of specific technologies like robots, AI and autonomous cars, and also lots of data showing how the economy is being transformed. The authors also make a strong argument that the way economists measure things, especially in terms of GDP, no longer does a good job of capturing what prosperity really means in the information age.
The book includes suggestions for both individuals and policy makers. Brynjolfsson and McAfee suggest that workers should learn to "race with the machines" (rather than against them), although the advice here isn't very specific beyond getting the best education you can. The authors are hopeful that innovations like massive free online courses (MOOCs) will help more people to make this transition.
There are lots of policy suggestions including reforming education to pay teachers more but also make them accountable, jump starting entrepreneurship, better job matching technologies, investing more in basic scientific research, upgrading national infrastructure, expanding skilled immigration, implementing smarter taxes, expanding the earned income tax credit (EITC), etc. In the long run, the authors also offer lukewarm support for the possibility of a guaranteed income or negative income tax.
Overall, "The Second Machine Age" does a good job of identifying and explaining the forces that will be critical to the economy and job market of future. The book has a basically optimistic tone, but I think a lot of the trends it points out are going to be really bad news for a lot of people.
This covers a lot of the same ground as books such as "The Lights in the Tunnel" but in a more pop-academic style: the prose is all very accessible but the information is extensively footnoted and attributed, and there are numerous references to the work of other academics, mostly but not exclusively economists. For anyone who wonders why we're seeing record-high income inequality and jobless recoveries from recessions, this book will clear up a lot of mysteries.
As someone in the technology field myself, I found little to disagree with in the book's treatment of recent and upcoming technological advances, which occupies the first several chapters; the authors have done their homework and have visited enough research labs and company R&D departments to have a very realistic picture of what's just over the horizon. There'll be nothing earth-shattering here for readers who follow technology trends or even who read WIRED magazine, but the book looks at all these things through a somewhat different lens (its impact on human work) than the tech press usually does, and I didn't find myself skimming even when they were covering developments with which I'm already very familiar.
For me, the best stretch of the book was chapters 7 through 11, when the focus moves to the effects of recent technological advances on the economy and on the study of economics itself. The authors build a compelling case that income inequality is much more a consequence of the move to a digital economy than of any particular government policy. I found their take on globalization especially interesting: they view it as a big contributor to the rise in income of the world's top earners, but not for the reasons people usually think. I already tended toward this view, but now I'm further convinced that some of the changes we've seen in wealth distribution are primarily due to deep structural changes in the way the world works and won't be undone by tax policy.
I found the book less convincing in its final chapters, where the authors suggest steps that can be taken to avert widespread unemployment and social disorder. Their short-term prescriptions are sensible enough (basically: take steps to encourage general economic growth) but, as the authors themselves point out, these won't address the underlying problem, identified by Keynes among others, of technological change outpacing the ability of large segments of the workforce to retrain for new jobs. They offer a few examples of systems that make it easier to find occasional part-time work and suggest that these could be expanded in the future, but as far as I can tell their vision would still leave people mostly idle. They are optimistic about the ability of people to continue finding work but I didn't feel it was justified by the picture their text painted.
Still, this is about the best treatment I've found of the question of how technology is likely to affect work over the next couple decades. Highly recommended.
Brynjolfsson is one of the most forward and provocative thinkers out there about technology and its impact on economics. The book he co-authored with Andy McAfee "Race Against the Machine" is one of the best books I have read in a long time. This book repeats much of what is in Race against the Machine, giving it a more positive spin. If you have read the first book, there really is no reason to read this one. The Second Machine Age rewords much of Brynjolfsson's TED talk of the a similar name. The TED Talk is highly recommended and provides a good overview of what you will find in this book.
Big ideas, like those Brynjolfsson talks about are hard to come by and that is what makes them valuable. I had hoped that this book developed these ideas further, rather than largely restating them. That said if you have never read "Race" this book is just as good as the other.
One of the most important books I've read in a long time. The authors are clearly authorities on the subject and have done excellent research in the many periphery fields related to the phenomenon they have dubbed our "second machine age". Almost every implication of our technology-dominated future is covered here; economics, politics, changing societal values, and many others. The central thesis of the book is that the introduction for the first time in our history of technological progress that is (1) exponential, (2) digital and (3) combinatorial will have massive ramifications not only in the long-term but also over the next decade.
The section that I found the most interesting was that on the future of labor demand. As the authors argue, these three characteristics of technological progress will soon wipe out many of the repetition- and pattern-based occupations we associate with the American middle class, as they already have been doing for the last three or so decades. However, due to the exponential nature of the progress, we can expect to see a much more drastic middle class fallout over the next few decades. Due to the nature of their work, most lower-class (i.e., a janitor) and upper-class (i.e., a physician) careers are not as vulnerable as middle-class ones to replacement by automation...yet. And that's a big yet. The truth is, nobody knows what level of sophistication machines are capable of attaining, and it's important to prepare for the worst.
How can we do this? How can we ensure being able to maintain our livelihood in a world increasingly dominated by machines? Actually, the answer is pretty simple. What we need to do is to ask ourselves, "What can I do that a machine can't?" A lot of things, it turns out. At least today, machines cannot write prose, cannot come up with original ideas, cannot easily combine different sources of input to arrive at a novel solution, and cannot easily recognize patterns, among many others. And in a world where data is an almost infinite resource, all of those skills are going to become more vital than ever. Indeed, the key to prosperity in the second machine age, write the authors, will be one's ability to be an "indispensable complement" (pg. 200) to this data -- to make connections between information and to produce something unique in the process. Creativity -- something machines don't have -- will be an extremely important asset to those who know how to leverage it. To prepare for the future, therefore, we must hone this creativity, training ourselves how to read discerningly, write inventively, and explore data for patterns and new insight. In short, we must embrace our humanity if we wish to compete with technology.
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