The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumphs Over the Bold and the New

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		The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumphs Over the Bold and the New
		The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumphs Over the Bold and the New

The new paradigm for investing and building wealth in the twenty-first century. The Future for Investors reveals new strategies that take advantage of the dramatic changes and opportunities that will appear in world markets.

Jeremy Siegel, one of the world’s top investing experts, has taken a long, hard, and in-depth look at the market and the stocks that investors should acquire to build long-term wealth. His surprising finding is that the new technologies, expanding industries, and fast-growing countries that stockholders relentlessly seek in the market often lead to poor returns. In fact, growth itself can be an investment trap, luring investors into overpriced stocks and overly competitive industries.

The Future for Investors shatters conventional wisdom and provides a framework for picking stocks that will be long-term winners. While technological innovation spurs economic growth, it has not been kind to investors. Instead, companies that have marketed tried-and-true products for decades in slow-growth or even declining industries have superior returns to firms that develop “the bold and the new.” Industry sectors many regard as dinosaurs—railroads and oil companies, for example—have actually beat the market.

Professor Siegel presents these strategies within the context of the coming shift in global economic power and the demographic age wave that will sweep the United States, Europe, and Japan. Contrary to the popular belief that these economic and demographic trends doom investors to poor returns, Professor Siegel explains the True New Economy and how to take advantage of the coming surge in invention, discovery, and economic growth.

The faster the world changes, the more important it is for investors to heed the lessons of the past and find the tried-and-true companies that can help you beat the market and prosper in the years ahead.


From the Hardcover edition.

网友对The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumphs Over the Bold and the New的评论

一本好书,用基本的概念讲述了价值投资的真正内涵.国内翻译的版本错误太多,建议读原版的,比较有味道!

印刷没得说的,原版书果然不一样.内容有待慢慢消化.

I'm giving this book five stars only because I can't give it the ten it deserves. I have decades of experience in the markets (stocks, futures, options, etc.) and of the hundreds of investment books I have read this is one of the few I value and will read more than once.

For the retail investor, only a few proven, as well as legal, approaches to the markets actually work consistently over time, yet hundreds of approaches have been touted that don't work and more emerge almost daily, This book delineates an approach (stocks, valuation, dividends, diversification, total return) that has stood the test of time, place, and circumstance, backed by actual historical data and unique insights, all presented in lucid prose. The book also describes the coming age wave, its consequences for investors and a plausible global solution.

Investors who have traveled down many blind investment alleys, and paid the inevitable prices, will especially appreciate the significance and value of this work. But, it isn't a complete game plan because no person could implement such a decades long approach and stay the course during severe bear markets such as those as recent as 00-01 and 08, both of which were caused by flawed government market interventions and a new one is being brewed by the same misguided politicians now.

A few politicians appreciate the value and wisdom of free markets, but there are many more who view business as targets to exploit and, unburdened by humility or wisdom, distort an economy with bad policies which make successful investing so challenging.

This is a very good and interesting book from both the perspective of historical analysis and the ability of the book to make you think differently about your investment goals. There are several good reviews about this book already and they question the taxes on these dividend stocks but the account that these income generating stocks should be bought in are tax deferred accounts. I really enjoyed the supporting facts on the value of consumer dividend paying stocks. I haven't read his book about "stocks for the long run" but this book by itself was useful in helping me think differently about asset allocation too. In summary, this is a very good book to help build your knowledge about the stock market.

Jeremy Siegel is a must read for any investor. Sure, he is a "permanent-bull" but presents his arguments well, with lots of data too! Start with his "Stocks for the Long Run" first.

I recommend Jemery Siegel and John Bogle books to all new investors.

The Future for Investors is Jeremy Siegel's sequel to his popular Stocks for the Long Run. Overall, he makes the same point in his new book as he did in the last one: Over long periods of time, stocks have outperformed other liquid forms of investment such as bonds, bills, cash, and gold. While reaching this same conclusion, The Future for Investors does offer some new or revised insights that make it well worth reading. Some highlights include the following:

1. Since its inception in 1957, the S&P500 index has underperformed the price movements of those of its original 500 firms that still exist as independent companies. The price movements of the new firms added to the index have underperformed those of the originals even though the new firms have often had higher earnings growth rates.

2. Selecting stocks for growth alone often results in paying too much for a stock. While Siegel doesn't spell it out, he seems to be advocating something akin to a PE-to-Growth (PEG) or similar ratio. (Comment: I personally go one step beyond PEG and use PE-to-Growth-to-Uncertainty-in-Growth by dividing the conventional PEG ratio by the standard deviation of the earnings per share growth rate.) He does advocate several strategies based on the selection of low priced/high yield stocks, similar to and including the popular Dogs of the Dow strategy.

3. Dividends count in many ways. Most of the recent cases of managers cooking the books to overstate earnings occurred in firms that did not pay cash dividends, since dividends are much harder to fake than earnings. The payment of a steady or increasing cash dividend offers another measure of safety in buying a stock. The recent reduction in the double taxation of dividends makes them much more attractive. Finally, reinvesting dividends is analogous to dollar cost averaging, causing the investor to buy more shares when the price is lower had fewer shares when the price is higher. Over time, this reinvestment will pay off handsomely.

4. Much has been written about the aging of the baby boomers and what will happen when they retire. The worst case scenarios describe their departure from the workforce as resulting in (1) no one to produce the goods and services they want to buy in retirement and (2) no one to buy the stocks and bonds that they need to sell to finance buying those goods and services. Siegel is an optimist; I share his optimism and hope we are correct. Looking at the developing world, he sees an inverse demographic pattern: Lots of young people and fewer old people. If the developing world develops rapidly and broadly enough, those young people will be able to (1) produce the goods and services sought by the boomers and (2) invest in their own retirements by buying the investment the boomers must sell.

5. To participate in (and to support) this optimistic outcome, Siegel advises investing as much as 40% of one's portfolio in non-US securities. Selecting and buying foreign stocks is even harder than selecting and buying US stocks, so here Siegel puts a lot of emphasis on mutual funds and exchange traded funds tied to various world indices.

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