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Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future |  |
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Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future | |
“Of all the moderns who have written on automation and rising joblessness, Martin Ford is the original. His Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is due out this May.... Self-recommending.”
—Marginal Revolution
“Robots, and their like, are on the rise. Their impact will be an important question in the next decade and beyond. Martin Ford has been thinking in this area before most others, so this book deserves very careful consideration.”
—Lawrence Summers, President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
“It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table. Rise of the Robots presents one idea, the basic income model, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.”
—Jaron Lanier, author of You Are Not a Gadget and Who Owns the Future?
“Whether you agree or not with the policy prescriptions put forward by [Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots and Anne-Marie Slaughter's Unfinished Business] these two well-written books, and quite a few will likely disagree, they are important reads for those wishing to better understand and influence the future.”
—Bloomberg Business, Mohamed El-Erian
“Few captured the mood as well as Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, the winner of the FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award, which painted a bleak picture of the upheavals that would come as ever-greater numbers of even highly skilled workers were displaced by machines.”
—Financial Times
“[A] breathtaking new book on modern economics.”
—Forbes.com
“Lucid, comprehensive and unafraid to grapple fairly with those who dispute Ford's basic thesis, Rise of the Robots is an indispensable contribution to a long-running argument.”
—Los Angeles Times
“If The Second Machine Age was last year's tech-economy title of choice, this book may be 2015's equivalent.”
—Financial Times, Summer books 2015, Business, Andrew Hill
“[Ford's] a careful and thoughtful writer who relies on ample evidence, clear reasoning, and lucid economic analysis. In other words, it's entirely possible that he's right.”
—Daily Beast
“Rise of the Robots is an excellent book. Fair-minded, balanced, well-researched, and fully thought through.”
—Inside Higher Ed, Learn blog
“Surveying all the fields now being affected by automation, Ford makes a compelling case that this is an historic disruption—a fundamental shift from most tasks being performed by humans to one where most tasks are done by machines.”
—Fast Company
“Well written with interesting stories about both business and technology.”
—Wired/Dot Physics
Winner of the 2015 FT & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
A New York Times Bestseller
Top Business Book of 2015 at Forbes
One of NBCNews.com 12 Notable Science and Technology Books of 2015
“For nonfiction, I tip my hat to Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots, which is vacuuming up accolades and is recommended reading for IIF staff. Ford's analysis, in a somewhat crowded field of similar books, offers a sobering assessment of how technology (robotics, machine learning, AI, etc.) is reshaping labor markets, the composition of growth, and the distribution of income and wealth, and calls for enlightened political and policy leadership to address coming, accelerating disruptions and dislocations.”
—Bloomberg Business, Timothy Adams
““We are in an era of technological optimism but sociological pessimism. Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots captures why these shifts are related and what challenges this might pose to our conventional economic and social infrastructures.”
—Bloomberg Business, Andy Haldane
网友对Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future的评论
I have taught Artificial Intelligence (AI) for 3 decades at a major university. Until about 10 years ago, whenever someone worried about the effect of intelligent software/hardware destroying future jobs, I would always give my "buggy whip" argument, which goes like this:
"When the automobile was invented it DID destroy many jobs. Makers of buggy whips and horse troughs were put out of business. But many more NEW jobs were created to replace those older jobs. Witness all the gas stations, auto mechanic shops, car factories, etc."
About 8 years ago I lost faith in the buggy whip argument. I realized that, as the technology of AI advanced, a point would be reached in which intelligent software and general-purpose robots could perform all tasks (both mental and physical) that are currently achievable only by highly educated humans. Once one intelligent robot exists with a high level of general intelligence, it can be mass produced. There have been many advances in AI in recent years (in neural networks, planning and learning systems). Machine learning systems can now learn a number of complex cognitive tasks simply by observing the past performance of human experts.
I have always been an admirer of the combination of modern capitalism and (relatively) free markets as the major drivers of wealth. However, modern capitalism (with its corporations, stock and dividends) is less than a few centuries old. There is no reason to believe that it must last forever. Its "reign" over older economic systems may well end abruptly in the near future.
At one time I toyed with writing a book about my concerns regarding intelligent automation and its future effect on political and economic systems but Martin Ford has a done a 100-times better job that I could have ever done. His book is very persuasive in pointing out why the "buggy whip" argument will cease to remain persuasive.
I only have two complaints about Ford's book: (a) the title sounds a bit too much like a title for a pulp-fiction work and so I fear that not enough people will read it and (b) the first 75 pages consist of a standard summary of current economic facts and principles and so I fear that some readers may quit reading his book before they get to the really interesting parts, which in my opinion, start after page 75.
I read a ton of books, and cite/excerpt/link them on my main blog (Blog.KHIT.org). Rarely have I encountered one as oddly enjoyable as this one. Amiably well-written, amply documented, throwing down clear logic, and plausible scenario conjectures (based on his -- always guarded -- interpretations of his broad and deep documentation).
Humans seem to be sleepwalking into a future regarding which they are largely unprepared. Will we slide into a dystopian techno-neo-feudalism when the jobs largely evaporate across nearly all sectors, including the cognitive arena "knowledge worker" domains thought to be relatively bulletproof? We are all in this together -- much as our narcissistic one-tenth-of-one-percenters like to deny it. "Wealth" is a relative thing, much as they prefer to deny it.
My initial interest in this book (based on an NPR interview I heard) was that of his take on health care (my area -- Health IT), which I will be writing up forthwith. But, the larger problem is equally if not moreso compelling. How will we all "earn our keep" if reliable employment diminishes by half or more, regardless of our skills and initiative? Are we headed for "Elysium"?
Or worse?
"Rise..." was the fifth book I've read on the inevitable end of capitalism which now badly maimed by globalization: the race to the bottom , is heading towards the certain doom that a fully or near fully automated workplace will bring about .
Being of recent issue and up-to-date on the rapidly advancing technologies, the book is the best of the lot for what it covers: the economic fallout and possible solutions to near full automation and the loss of most jobs at all levels and surprisingly a large number of the jobs to go first are those jobs that are at middle level and are mostly dealing with repetitive data to which even at this early stage of automation, machines and sophisticated algorithms are far better suited than humans are.
I had only very few and very minor disagreements with the author as to fixes of the problems total unemployment will bring.
None of the books cared to go there because capitalism is a sacred cow and in the U.S. a book touting the need for a socialist distribution system to replace the worker's paycheck-driven system we are now using.
The ship that is capitalism is now taking on water, the holes that are the exponentially developing job-taking technologies in the keel are getting larger and the ship will go down slowly at first and then with a rush as Moore's Law has it's inevitable effect.
OTOH, what all of the books (".. Singularity.." ,Second Machine Age...Abundance, Life At The Speed Of light and "Rise.." stressed heavily right from the first chapter as most important in understanding the progress of technology is in understanding its exponential rather than linear progression.; that the speed of technological change is largely not understood by a very large percentage of the lay public.
Simply put, a great percentage of the public does believe that total automation will happen but not for about 100 years and decidedly not in the unbelievable to them but very real 20 year time frame dictated by Moore's Law .
The best part of this is that we don't have to wait so very long to see who is/was correct about the time frame.
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