The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse

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		The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse
		The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis, from one of the world’s most influential economic thinkers and the author of When Markets Collide

Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder.

In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choices we face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors—and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector—before we stumble into another crisis.

The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future.

Praise for The Only Game in Town

“The one economic book you must read now . . . If you want to understand [our] bifurcated world and where it’s headed, there is no better interpreter than Mohamed El-Erian.”–Time

“A grand tour of the challenges we face, along with ideal solutions and more likely outcomes . . . We desperately need a system in which the central banks are no longer the only game in town.”—Steven Rattner, The New York Times Book Review

“A must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time.”—Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs

“El-Erian’s gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible.”—Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America

“[A] highly intelligent analysis.”—Fareed Zakaria, CNN (book of the week)

网友对The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse的评论

Mohamed, what an outstanding book. You cover many of the themes we discussed in the past and bring the material with a clear and concise message. Global central banks have unlimited means but their actions have far greater consequences than many may realize. We may have approached the "T-junction" as you put it a few years ago when you coined the phrase for the first time. Central banks are driving investors into different directions at the junction, and this is why policy divergence and volatility will remain in effect. Divergence and volatility could intensify in a worse manner because of central bank policy pulling investors in different directions at the junction. This may result in the "ultimate policy response" in the form of "helicopter money." This is likely when the T-junction gets so crowded, the financial system falls back into a full scale deleveraging like what happened in 2008. The same central banks policies that were put in place to prevent a repeat of a 2008 style deleveraging, will fail because those same policies created the T-junction. Investors and other readers should take note of this book, and understand Mohamed's framework to navigate the many unintended consequences of global monetary policy.

Although very insightful, threre are two problems:
1- I hated his writing style. Simple and intuitive ideas were delivered in sophisticated and complex language.
2- didn't have the courge to directly criticize mainstream economics and central bankers

What I liked about it was the clear-sighted recognition that the Fed and other central banks aren't evil and our legislators are the ones reneging on their responsibility to govern.

There were two things I didn't like. One was El-Erian's use of language. For example, he has ten issues to which he devotes a chapter each. Each of these chapters starts with an italicized issue. This would work very well, except each time he uses run-on sentences and superfluous adjectives that actually muddle the issue. I found myself going back and restating the issues in a clearer fashion. Second, he repeatedly says that there are specific things that households should do to prepare for the anticipated "T-junction" and to help influence a positive outcome in it. Unfortunately, he never articulates what these things are. Ending with the vague ideas of optionality, agility, and resilience doesn't help me much. In fact, I'd wager many people reading this book don't use the word "optionality" in their daily lives and would be unclear what actions they'd need to take to implement that concept.

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