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Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets |  |
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Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets | |
Michael Covel is a highly respected author, director, and entrepreneur who founded the internationally known website TurtleTrader.com in 1996. Covel’s first book was the best selling Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (FT Press April 2004 and November 2005 Expanded Edition). The book profiles great trend following traders who have won millions, if not billions, in the market. The original edition, expanded edition, and paperback edition have sold 100,000 plus copies. It is also available in German, Japanese, Chinese (complex and simplified), Korean, French, Arabic, Turkish, and Russian.
Covel’s second book The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results (Collins, October 2007) is the definitive inside look at the legendary trader Richard Dennis and his student traders, ‘The Turtles.’ The book has received wide acclaim and is headed toward bestseller status. It is also available in German, Korean, and Chinese (complex and simplified).
Building off his book success, Covel wrote, directed, and produced a theatrical release documentary titled Broke: The New American Dream, built around the subject of behavioral finance, specifically investigating the 2007—2008 market crisis and crash. Face-to-face interviews with Nobel Prize winners Dr. Harry Markowitz and Dr. Vernon Smith, famed mutual fund investor Bill Miller of Legg Mason, David Harding of hedge fund Winton Capital, plus dozens of other Wall Street pros, along with average investors were conducted over 2007 and 2008. The film was shot in New York, DC, Miami, Dallas, San Diego, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Richmond, London, Tokyo, Singapore, Macau, and on a sheep farm outside of Harrisonburg, Virginia.
Not afraid of a crowd or controversy, Covel is known for engaging and provocative speeches presented to audiences from Tokyo to Paris to Macau (China) to Vienna (Austria) to Hong Kong to Dallas (US). His writings have appeared in Trader Monthly Magazine, Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine, Futures Magazine, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, TradingMarkets.com, Yahoo Finance, Market Technicians Association Newsletter, and Futures Japan Magazine. Covel has been quoted and interviewed by likes of Bloomberg Radio, Technical Analysis Magazine, Barrons, and dozens of radio
programs.
Covel can be reached directly at www.michaelcovel.com.
“Michael Covel’s Trend Following: Essential.”
--Ed Seykota, trend follower for 35 years and original Market Wizard
“A mandatory reference for anyone serious about alternative investments.”
--Jon Sundt, president and CEO, Altergris
“Michael Covel does an excellent job of educating his readers about the little-known opportunities available to them through one of the proven best hedge fund strategies. This book is like gold to any smart investor.”
--Christian Baha, founder and owner, Superfund
“Covel has created a very rare thing--a well documented and thoroughly researched book on trend following that is also well written and easy to read. This is one book that traders at all levels will find of real value.”
--John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline
The Investment Strategy That Keeps on Making Money While Everyone Else Is Losing It:
How Trend Followers Made a Fortune During the 2008 Stock Market Crash
Did your buy and hold investments survive the crash of 2008? While many were getting hammered, trend followers were earning profits ranging all the way up to +40% for the month of October 2008 alone!
Now, the #1 guide to trend following has been thoroughly updated to reflect 2008’s cataclysmic events. Michael W. Covel reveals exactly how the trend followers achieved those amazing results. Using simple, up-to-the-minute charts from top traders, he doesn’t just prove this strategy works: He shows why only a technical system based on following price trends can win over the long term.
Best of all, he shows you exactly how to apply the same strategies in your own portfolio--so you, too, can keep on profiting no matter what happens next!
For more than 30 years, trend following has been the one trading strategy that’s consistently delivered extraordinary profits in bull and bear markets. While most investors were losing a fortune in the 2008 stock market collapse, stuck in buy and hold investments, trend followers were earning huge profits...up to a whopping +40% in the single month of October 2008! The proof’s in this book: brand-new data you can view for yourself, plus all the information you need to know to utilize the same timeless strategies in your portfolio.
In this fully updated edition, trend following expert Michael Covel introduces the traders and fund managers who’ve been using this strategy for decades, adding brand-new profiles such as David Harding, who manages $10 billion plus dollars through his London-based trend following firm. Then, Covel walks you through all the concepts and techniques you need to use trend following yourself. One step at a time, one simple chart at a time, you’ll learn how to understand price movements well enough to profit from them consistently--in any market.
Today, you need trend following more than ever. Read this book, and put it to work for you!
Real proof, real data, real resultsForeword by Larry Hite xiii
Preface xvii
Part I
1 Trend Following 3
2 Great Trend Followers 27
Part II
3 Performance Data 97
4 Big Events, Crashes, and Panics 123
5 Baseball: Thinking Outside the Batter's Box 181
Part III
6 Human Behavior 193
7 Decision Making 211
8 Science of Trading 221
9 Holy Grails 231
Part IV
10 Trading Systems 247
11 The Game 277
Afterword 285
Foreword to the First Edition by Charles Faulkner 299
Appendices
Introduction to Appendices 305
A Trend Following for Stocks 307
B Performance Guide 347
C Short-Term Trading 375
D Personality Traits of Successful Traders 377
E Trend Following Models 381
F Trading System Example from Mechanica 385
G Critical Questions for Trading Systems 395
Resources 397
Endnotes 399
Bibliography 423
Index 431
“Michael Covel’s Trend Following: essential.”
—Ed Seykota, trend follower and original market wizard
“Trend Following by Michael Covel? I’m ‘long’ this book.”
—Bob Spear, developer of Trading Recipes Software
“Michael Covel’s Trend Following is a breakthrough book that captures the essence of what really makes markets tick. Diligently researched and comprehensive in scope, it will replace The Market Wizards as the must-read bible for a new generation of traders.”
—Jonathan Hoenig, portfolio manager, Capitalistpig Hedge
Fund LLC and Fox News contributor
“Investment books that have a lasting appeal offer insight that resonates with a large number of investors. We believe Michael Covel’s Trend Following will be such a book.”
—Richard E. Cripps, Legg Mason chief market strategist
“Please read Trend Following whether you think you have an interest in trend following or are not sure...Covel has hit a home run with it.”
—Gail Osten, editor-in-chief, Stocks,
Futures, & Options magazine
“Michael Covel has written the definitive book on trend following. With careful research and clear insight, he has captured the essence of the most successful of all trading strategies. Michael knows his subject matter and he writes about it with passion, conviction, and enthusiasm. This enjoyable and well written book is destined to become a classic.”
—Charles LeBeau, author of Technical Traders Guide to
Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets
“Trend Following is an engrossing and educational journey through the principles, pitfalls, players, and psychology of aggressive technical trading of the investment markets. It is rich in its wisdom and historical study.”
—Gerald Appel, president of Signalert Corporation and publisher
of Systems and Forecasts newsletter
“Conventional wisdom says buy low and sell high, but what do you do now that your favorite market—be it a stock, bond, or commodity—is at an all-time high or low? For a completely different perspective, from people who actually make money at this business, take a look inside. Michael Covel has written a timely and entertaining account of trend following—how it works, how to do it, and who can do it. While it’s not for everybody, it might be for you.”
—Charles Faulkner, NLP modeler and trading coach, featured in
numerous books including The New Market Wizards
“I think the book did a superb job of covering the philosophy and thinking behind trend following (basically, why it works). You might call it the Market Wizards of Trend Following.”
—Van K. Tharp, Ph.D., president, International Institute of Trading Mastery, Inc.
Van was originally profiled in The Market Wizards by Jack Schwager.
“I think that this book documents a great deal of what has made trend following managers a successful part of the money management landscape (how they manage risk and investment psychology). It serves as a strong educational justification on why investors should consider using trend following managers as a part of an overall portfolio strategy.”
—Tom Basso, retired CEO, Trendstat Capital Management, Inc. Tom was
originally profiled in The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager.
“Michael Covel mixes a unique blend of trend following matters with the thoughts and quotes of successful traders, investors and society’s leaders. This is a valuable contribution and some of the best writing on trend following I’ve seen.”
—Robert (Bucky) Isaacson, managed money and trend
following pioneer for more than 30 years
“Trend Following: Definitely required reading for the aspiring trader.”
—David S. Druz, tactical investment management and trend follower for 25 years
“Michael Covel reveals the real secret about trading—that there is no secret. His points are peppered with wisdom from experts across the industry.”
—John Ehlers, president, MESA Software
Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets Preface“Men wanted for hazardous journey. Small wages. Bitter cold. Long months of complete darkness. Constant danger. Safe return doubtful. Honor and recognition in case of success.”1
This book is the result of a 14-year “hazardous journey” for the truth about trend following trading. It fills a void in a marketplace inundated with books about buying low and selling high, index investing, and all other types of fundamental analysis, but lacking any resource or, for that matter, practically any reference to what I believe is the single best strategy to consistently make money in the markets. That strategy is known as trend following. Author Van Tharp has described it succinctly:
“Let’s break down the term ‘trend following’ into its components. The first part is ‘trend.’ Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices ... ‘following’ is the next part of the term. We use this word because trend followers always wait for the trend to shift first, then ‘follow’ it.”2
When it is a question of money, everyone is of the same religion.
Voltaire
Trend following trading seeks to capture the majority of a market trend, up or down, for profit. It aims for profits in all major asset classes—stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Unfortunately, however simple the basic concepts about trend following are, they have been widely misunderstood by the public. My desire to correct this state of affairs is what, in part, launched my research. I wanted to be as objective as possible, so I based my writing on all available data:
Trend followers’ month-by-month performance historiesTrend followers’ published words and comments over the last 30 yearsNews accounts of financial disastersNews accounts of the losers in those financial disastersCharts of markets traded by trend followersCharts of markets traded by losers in the financial disastersIf I could have written a book comprising only numbers, charts, and graphs of trend following performance data, I would have. However, without any explanation, few readers would have appreciated the ramifications of what the data alone showed. Therefore, my approach to writing Trend Following became similar to the one Jim Collins describes in his book Good to Great, in which a team of researchers generated questions, accumulated data in their open-ended search for answers, and then energetically debated it.
Education rears disciples, imitators, and routinists, not pioneers of new ideas and creative geniuses. The schools are not nurseries of progress and improvement, but conservatories of tradition and unvarying modes of thought.
Ludwig von Mises
However, unlike Collins who was writing about generally well known public companies, trend followers form a sort of underground network of relatively unknown traders who, except for an occasional article, the mainstream press has virtually ignored. What I have attempted to do is lift the veil, for the first time, on who these enormously successful traders are, how they trade, and what is to be learned from their approach to trading that we might all apply to our own portfolios.
Trend Following challenges much of the conventional wisdom about successful trading and traders. To avoid the influences of conventional wisdom, I was determined to avoid being influenced by institutionalized knowledge defined by Wall Street and was adamant about fighting “flat earth” thinking. During my research, starting with an assumption and then finding data to support it was avoided. Instead, questions were asked and then, objectively, doggedly, and slowly, answers were revealed.
If there was one factor that motivated me to work in this manner, it was simple curiosity. The more I uncovered about trend followers, the more I wanted to know. For example, one of the earliest questions (without an answer already) was learning who profited when Barings Bank collapsed. My research unearthed a connection between Barings Bank and trend follower John W. Henry (now the majority owner of the Boston Red Sox). Henry’s track record generated new questions, such as, “How did he discover trend following in the first place?” and “Has his approach changed in any significant w...
