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The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More |  |
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The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More | |
"The Long Tail" is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google.
However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know.
The Long Tail is really about the economics of abundance. New efficiencies in distribution, manufacturing, and marketing are essentially resetting the definition of what?s commercially viable across the board. If the 20th century was about hits, the 21st will be equally about niches.
作者简介 Chris Anderson is editor in chief of Wired magazine, a position he has held since 2001. He has worked at The Economist , where he served as U.S. business editor. His career began at the two premier science journals, Science and Nature , where he served in several editorial capacities. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics from George Washington University and studied Quantum Mechanics and Science Journalism at the University of California at Berkeley. He lives in Berkeley, California.
媒体推荐 "Anderson?s insights with the Long Tail continue to influence Google?s strategic thinking in a profound way." -- Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google
"I can?t begin to tell you how thrilled I was by The Long Tail." -- Howard Look, VP, TiVo
"If you haven?t already read The Long Tail, you?d better -- it?s the new Tipping Point." -- Andy Lark, VP, Sun Microsystems
编辑推荐 From Publishers Weekly
Wired editor Anderson declares the death of "common culture"—and insists that it's for the best. Why don't we all watch the same TV shows, like we used to? Because not long ago, "we had fewer alternatives to compete for our screen attention," he writes. Smash hits have existed largely because of scarcity: with a finite number of bookstore shelves and theaters and Wal-Mart CD racks, "it's only sensible to fill them with the titles that will sell best." Today, Web sites and online retailers offer seemingly infinite inventory, and the result is the "shattering of the mainstream into a zillion different cultural shards." These "countless niches" are market opportunities for those who cast a wide net and de-emphasize the search for blockbusters. It's a provocative analysis and almost certainly on target—though Anderson's assurances that these principles are equally applicable outside the media and entertainment industries are not entirely convincing. The book overuses its examples from Google, Rhapsody, iTunes, Amazon, Netflix and eBay, and it doesn't help that most of the charts of "Long Tail" curves look the same. But Anderson manages to explain a murky trend in clear language, giving entrepreneurs and the rest of us plenty to think about. (July)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
From Bookmarks Magazine
In The Long Tail, Chris Anderson offers a visionary look at the future of business and common culture. The long-tail phenomenon, he argues, will "re-shape our understanding of what people actually want to watch" (or read, etc.). While Anderson presents a fascinating idea backed by thoughtful (if repetitive) analysis, many critics questioned just how greatly the niche market will rework our common popular culture. Anderson convinced most reviewers in his discussion of Internet media sales, but his KitchenAid and Lego examples fell flat. A few pointed out that online markets constitute just 10 percent of U.S. retail, and brick-and-mortar stores will never disappear. Anderson's thesis came under a separate attack by Lee Gomes in his Wall Street Journal column. Anderson had defined the "98 Percent Rule" in his book to mean that no matter how much inventory is made available online, 98 percent of the items will sell at least once. Yet Gomes cited statistics that could indicate that, as the Web and Web services become more mainstream, the 98 Percent Rule may no longer apply: "Ecast [a music-streaming company] told me that now, with a much bigger inventory than when Mr. Anderson spoke to them two years ago, the quarterly no-play rate has risen from 2% to 12%. March data for the 1.1 million songs of Rhapsody, another streamer, shows a 22% no-play rate; another 19% got just one or two plays." If Anderson overreaches in his thesis, he has nonetheless written "one of those business books that, ironically, deserves more than a niche readership" (Houston Chronicle).
Copyright © 2004 Phillips & Nelson Media, Inc.
From Booklist
Citing statistical curves called "long-tailed distributions" because the tails are very long relative to the heads, Anderson, editor of Wired magazine, focuses on the tail, or the development in the new digital world of an infinite number of niche markets of any size that are economically viable due to falling distribution costs and in the aggregate represent significant sales. Although the author considers primarily media and entertainment companies, he also shows the long-tail effect at eBay, KitchenAid, Legos, Salesforce.com, and Google. His nine rules for successful long-tail strategies include lowering costs and thinking niche (one product, distribution method, or price does not fit all) and giving up control by sharing information and offering choices. In this excellent book, Anderson tells that "the story of the long tail is really about the economics of abundance--what happens when the bottlenecks that stand between supply and demand in our culture start to disappear and everything becomes available to everyone." Mary Whaley
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
Review
"Anderson’s insights with the Long Tail continue to influence Google’s strategic thinking in a profound way." -- Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google
"I can’t begin to tell you how thrilled I was by The Long Tail." -- Howard Look, VP, TiVo
"If you haven’t already read The Long Tail, you’d better -- it’s the new Tipping Point." -- Andy Lark, VP, Sun Microsystems
专业书评 Customer Reviews
Terrific book on sea change for business modeling, August 30, 2006
By Shawn S. Sullivan (USA)
Chris Anderson has written a thought-provoking book in The Long Tail. It's about the new economics of culture and commerce. While I enjoyed thinking about the main premise - that the Internet has dramatically changed the interplay between supply and demand - I once again concluded that the book could have been a lot shorter (possibly a result of my taking the book "Blink" to heart).
The title refers to the shape of a classic downward-sloping demand curve if you graphed popularity (x-axis) vs. demand (y-axis). Think about book industry where the demand for a few titles (bestsellers or even top 100) is very high, but demand for the 200,000th most popular book is sporadic at best. Consequently, Barnes & Noble stores can only carry books with a certain level of demand and will miss a lot of the niche topics that are out there.
But, because of the Internet, the demand captured in the 'long tail' of this curve, comprised of thousands of niche businesses, represents a vibrant business. For example, while the typical Barnes & Noble will carry 100,000 titles, Amazon offers 3.7 million and says that 25% of their sales come from books outside of the top 100,000 titles. They claim, and the premise of the book is, that as companies offer increased supply (because in the new Internet economy, they can), demand seems to follow supply and, in fact, increases.
Another related trend is the transition across business lines from 'hit' to 'niche', which is exemplified by the popularity of myspace.com, ebay, itunes and google (representing the long tail of advertising).
The six main themes of the book are:
1. In virtually all markets, there are far more niche goods than hits, as a result of improvements in the basic tools of production (i.e. Internet).
2. The costs of reaching these niches is now falling dramatically thanks to digital distribution, search and a critical mass of broadband technology.
3. There are a range of tools - from recommendations to rankings (think search) that help to shift demand down the long tail, and help people find useful/relevant niches.
4. The effect of all of this is that the demand curve will eventually flatten, with the hits becoming relatively less popular and the niches growing in popularity.
5. All of the niches add up to comprise a market that rivals the hits.
6. The internet can reveal a natural shape of demand, undistorted by distribution bottlenecks, scarcity of information and limited choice of shelf space.
I would recommend this book to all those interested in a well thought out premise on how the internet has radically altered many business models due to various supply and demand characteristics and the ability to exploit demand that would previously not have been profitable.
