基本信息·出版社：HarperBusiness ·页码：486 页 ·出版日期：2003年11月 ·ISBN：006056413X ·条形码：9780060564131 ·版本：第1版 ·装帧：精装 · ...
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Bull!: A History of the Boom, 1982-2004 |
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Bull!: A History of the Boom, 1982-2004 |
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基本信息·出版社：HarperBusiness
·页码：486 页
·出版日期：2003年11月
·ISBN：006056413X
·条形码：9780060564131
·版本：第1版
·装帧：精装
·开本：32开 Pages Per Sheet
·外文书名：牛市: 泡沫与破裂的历史
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Publisher Comments:
In Bull!, Maggie Mahar tells the sweeping tale of the Great Bull Market of 1982–1999, a legendary run-up that pulled the entire nation into its gravitational field.
Mahar lays out the origins of the boom and takes the reader behind the scenes, on Wall Street, on Main Street, and in Washington, letting him see the story through the eyes of the fund managers, market gurus, analysts, politicians, business journalists, and 401(k) investors who, together, helped create the longest-running bull market in U.S. history. Some were touts; others were true believers. On the sidelines, a Greek Chorus of seasoned professionals tried, vainly, to describe the emperor's new clothes.
Filled with colorful portraits of many of the central figures of the boom years — Alan Greenspan, Henry Blodget, James Cramer, Abby Joseph Cohen — Bull! draws together a complex cast of characters, illuminating the web of relationships that kept the market aloft.
More than a financial history, Bull! is a lively, often witty social history of the stock market that became a part of popular culture. It is also the tale of individual investors, which chronicles the intimate stories of ordinary people — housewives and college professors, salesmen and waitresses — who got caught up in the excitement and then watched their life savings drain away.
How did it happen that the very real risks of investing in stocks were forgotten? Mahar explodes the myth of "stocks for the long run," explaining how the market's promoters crunched the numbers to create the illusion that if an investor stays in the casino just a little longer, he is guaranteed to come out a winner. Casting Warren Buffett in a new light, she explains how a value investor is, in the end, a long-term market timer who understands that success depends on how much you pay when you get into the market — and when you get out. By putting the bull market of 1982–1999 in a larger historical context, she shows how, over time, longtime bull markets beget longtime bear markets.
The future defies prediction, but the history of financial markets makes one thing clear: markets always revert to a mean. Taken as a single story, Bull! is both an illuminating history and a cautionary tale about investing. Analyzing the economic and psychological forces that drive financial cycles, Mahar shows how an extraordinary influx of cash and credit, combined with the obsessive attention of a new financial media, created a cult of equities. Challenging the notion that stocks always outperform all other investments, she reveals why many of Wall Street's most experienced investors believe that the 21st-century investor needs to throw out the old rule book and make a new beginning as he plans for his financial future.
No investor should keep his or her money in the stock market without first reading this book.
Review:
"Mahar teaches many valuable lessons in this excellent history and analysis."
Booklist
Review:
"In vivid detail, [Mahar] documents the trends and outsized personalities that fueled this particular bull market, including...the mania for junk bonds...the rush of individual investors into 401(k) retirement plans...and the media frenzy that lent an unlikely allure to quarterly corporate earnings reports."
Library Journal
Book News Annotation:
Financial journalist Mahar reminds readers of the inevitable cycles of stock markets, a lesson most are probably more willing to hear now that the "irrational exuberance" (to quote Alan Greenspan) of the 1990s is over. Writing in the style of popular history, she describes the origins of the booming bull market, focusing on the way investors, journalists, politicians, and others managed to ignore some of the most basic lessons of investing. The narrative frequently focuses on individuals in an effort to personalize the topic.
Synopsis:
A cautionary tale for what lies ahead, Bull! is an unsentimental history of the bull market that drew more Americans into the risky world of stocks than ever before.
Synopsis:
Includes bibliographical references (p. [385]-457) and index.
From Publishers Weekly
Financial journalist Mahar offers a thorough and accessible history of the explosive 1982-1999 bull market that is illuminating as well as sobering from the current bear market perspective. She notes that most people swept up in the euphoria of this latest market surge failed to recall the lessons of 1929-1934 and 1970-1974, when earlier bubbles collapsed and investors lost heavily. Citing studies by esteemed economists John Kenneth Galbraith and Charles Kindleberger, Mahar reminds readers that this self-blinding euphoria is a regular feature of every bull market. In vivid detail, she documents the trends and outsized personalities that fueled this particular bull market, including the surge of leveraged buyouts of 1984-1987, the mania for junk bonds, falling short-term interest rates, the rush of individual investors into 401(k) retirement plans, the power (and appetites) of mutual funds and the media frenzy that lent an unlikely allure to quarterly corporate earnings reports. As the runup in stock prices gained momentum in the late 1990s while evidence of corporate accounting shenanigans mounted, Mahar's account assumes the compelling power of an oncoming train wreck. Survivors of the recent market meltdown can profit from Mahar's assertion: "Ultimately, secular bear markets teach investors to learn to manage risk in a different way, focusing not on the odds, but on the size of risk." Individual investors will also gather that they need to be more skeptical of some sources of "information" and to be much better informed not to be burned again. Charts.
From Booklist
Mahar, a journalist, explores the intrigue and implications of the famous 1982-99 bull market. We are introduced to money managers, stock analysts, and market timers who played critical roles, as well as an unprecedented number of average men and woman (called "main street investors") who poured their retirement savings into mutual funds--money most of them could not afford to lose. Small investors were not advised of the inherent risks in their investments, says Mahar, and the media hype was so great and the news was so good that thousands upon thousands gave Wall Street their confidence. The book concludes with the author's thoughts on topics such as the "buy and hold" strategy; managing risk in a bear market; strategic market timing; and commodities, gold, and the dollar. The 1982-99 run of the bulls on Wall Street was part of a longer cycle that governs the stock market, and Mahar teaches many valuable lessons in this excellent history and analysis.
Mary Whaley
About the Author
Before becoming a financial journalist, Maggie Mahar was an English professor at Yale University, teaching 19th-and 20th-century poetry and prose. In 1982, she began covering financial markets, freelancing for Money magazine, Institutional Investor, and The New York Times, before joining Barron's as a senior writer in 1986. There, she wrote cover stories about Wall Street and Washington, specializing in profiles and investigative pieces. In 1998, she wrote a column about international markets and economics for Bloomberg.
Book Dimension
Height (mm) 234 Width (mm) 163
编辑推荐 "Mahar takes complicated topics and explains them clearly for the average reader. Her exceptional book is most highly recommended." (Library Journal )^"Bull!! also offers individual investors prescriptive data on how to position oneself for the next bull-market cycle." (International Herald Tribune )^"Highly readable and insightful... makes a devastating case against the contention that the market is almost perfectly efficient." (New York Times )^"Mahar imparts a forward-looking and worrisome lesson that makes Bull! intriguing reading." (Boston Globe )^"Striking...has a lot of the writing pizzazz lacking in 'Origins of the Crash'" (New York Times Book Review )^The other question on which Mahar is very interesting is the behavior of Greenspan . . the best account I've seen. (UPI )
目录 Acknowledgments
Prologue: Henry Blodget
Ch. 1 The Market's Cycles
3
Ch. 2 The People's Market
17
……
