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The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe |  |
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The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe | |
Can Europe prosper without the euro?
In 2010, the 2008 global financial crisis morphed into the “eurocrisis.” It has not abated. The 19 countries of Europe that share the euro currency―the eurozone―have been rocked by economic stagnation and debt crises. Some countries have been in depression for years while the governing powers of the eurozone have careened from emergency to emergency, most notably in Greece.
In The Euro, Nobel Prize–winning economist and best-selling author Joseph E. Stiglitz dismantles the prevailing consensus around what ails Europe, demolishing the champions of austerity while offering a series of plans that can rescue the continent―and the world―from further devastation.
Hailed by its architects as a lever that would bring Europe together and promote prosperity, the euro has done the opposite. As Stiglitz persuasively argues, the crises revealed the shortcomings of the euro. Europe’s stagnation and bleak outlook are a direct result of the fundamental challenges in having a diverse group of countries share a common currency―the euro was flawed at birth, with economic integration outpacing political integration. Stiglitz shows how the current structure promotes divergence rather than convergence. The question then is: Can the euro be saved?
After laying bare the European Central Bank’s misguided inflation-only mandate and explaining how eurozone policies, especially toward the crisis countries, have further exposed the zone’s flawed design, Stiglitz outlines three possible ways forward: fundamental reforms in the structure of the eurozone and the policies imposed on the member countries; a well-managed end to the single-currency euro experiment; or a bold, new system dubbed the “flexible euro.”
With its lessons for globalization in a world economy ever more deeply connected, The Euro is urgent and essential reading.
媒体推荐“Much more than a demolition job. These chapters are full of constructive proposals - a glimpse of what the ‘rescues’ would have looked like had the troika, perish the thought, hired their critic Stiglitz to design them.” (Marin Sandbu - Financial Times)
“[Stiglitz] is surely right. Without a radical overhaul of its workings, the euro seems all but certain to fail.” (The Economist)
“Terrific and clarifying.” (Peter Goodman - The New York Times)
“Many of Mr. Stiglitz’s most damning observations are on target.” (Wall Street Journal)
“The euro is a modern tragedy.…As its embarrassments have mounted, its supporters club has teemed with political romantics and Europhile journalists. Stiglitz’s message to such people is that they are inadvertently destroying what they most cherish.” (Paul Collier - Times Literary Supplement)
“A cogent and urgent argument of compelling interest to economists and policymakers.” (Kirkus Reviews)
Joseph E. Stiglitz is a Nobel Prize–winning economist and the best-selling author of The Great Divide, Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy, The Price of Inequality, Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy, and Globalization and Its Discontents. He is a columnist for the New York Times and Project Syndicate and has written for Vanity Fair, Politico, The Atlantic, and Harper’s. He teaches at Columbia University and lives in New York City.
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Today, many of the countries of Europe (France, Greece, Italy, Spain, U.K.) have an output/capita (adjusted for inflation) well below that prior to the 'Great Recession of 2008.'The Euro was supposed to enhance commercial ties, erode borders and foster a spirit of collective interest - partly through economies of scale and comparative advantage. But in the 17 years since that currency came into existence, it has instead reinvigorated conflicts and a spirit of distrust while making economic inequality worse and dividing Europe into adversarial debtor and creditor camps. Interest rates on Greek bonds and several other Eurozone countries has soared, peaking at 22.5% for Greece in 2012. The migrant crisis and terrorist threats have taken front stage - despite the euro supposedly bring about closer integration.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Lucas declared in 2003 that the 'central problem of depression prevention has been solved.' Market fundamentalists believe that if the government would simply ensure that inflation was low and stable, markets would ensure growth and prosperity for all - this is especially true within the Eurozone's dominant power, Germany. Greece is now in a depression, with half its youth unemployed, the extreme right has made large gains in France, a majority of those elected to Barcelona's regional parliament support independence from Spain, and large parts of Europe have a lower GDP/capita lower than before the 2008 global financial crisis. Even what Europe celebrates as a success is actually a failure - eg. Spain's unemployment rate has fallen from 26% in 2013 to 20% at the beginning of 2016 - but nearly half of young people remain unemployed and that would be even higher if so many young workers hadn't left to look elsewhere for jobs. Why?
Stiglitz's answer is that the 1992 Euro adoption failed provide support for the institutions that would make it work - specifically, the fault lies in currency pegs,' where the value of one country's currency is fixed relative to another or relative to a 'commodity.
Continuing, Stiglitz contends that our depression at the end of the 19th century was linked to the gold standard - with no new large discoveries of gold, its scarcity led to a fall in the prices of ordinary goods in terms of gold. This made it increasingly difficult for farmers in America to pay back their debts. The gold standard is also widely blamed for deepening and prolonging the Great Depression - those that abandoned the gold standard early recovered more quickly.
In spite of this, Europe decided to tie itself together with a single currency, creating within Europe the same kind of rigidity that the gold standard had inflicted on the world. Worse yet, the structure of the Eurozone built in certain ideas about what was required for economic success - that the central bank should focus on inflation, ignoring unemployment, growth, and stability as well, as does the Federal Reserve.
Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and Cyprus were also importing more than they were exporting, with the resulting insufficiency of domestic demand depressing the economy. One needed to make import-substituting activities more productive and encourage consumption of local goods. In Greece, for example, the opposite - Greece was ordered to change milk labeling so that 11-day-old milk from northern Europe could still be called 'fresh' and undercut Greek producers.
Why were Europe's leaders even focusing on milk, the size of loaves of bread, and what OTC drugs could be sold outside of pharmacies as Greece's GDP plummeted about 25%? Stiglitz observes that special interests, eg. big dairy companies of Holland, appear to be behind the reforms, and the chairman of the Eurogroup is the Dutch Finance minister. Stiglitz also notes that hardly any of the money loaned Greece went to help the Greeks, but rather private-sector creditors - German and French banks.
Germany holds itself out as a success - an example of what other countries should do. Its economy has grown by 6.8% since 2007 - just 0.8%/year, a number that normally would be considered close to failing. (The U.S. growth rate in the same period averaged 1.2%.) Stiglitz also points that prior to the crisis (early 2000s), Germany adopted reforms that aggressively cut into ordinary workers' safety net, especially those at the bottom. Inequality increased, and real wages stagnated. Germany is a 'success' only by comparison with other nations in the Eurozone. Regardless, its strategy cannot be universally followed - based in part on strong trade surpluses.
Stiglitz also contends that the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the macroeconomic policies imposed by the official creditors on crisis countries have been largely responsible for the economic damages done. Tightening monetary policy during the credit crunch following the 2008 crisis, along with the imposition of sharp fiscal deficit cuts threw the Eurozone into a self-inflected second recession in 2011-12. In Greece, for example, measures intended to lower the debt burden have left it more burdened than in 2010 - the debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 117% when the crisis began to 177% today. Many Germans insist it was hyperinflation that led to Hitler, and so tend to support central bank policies that guard against that problem rather than the more worrisome spector of joblessness - thus, Germany is the problem, not Greece.
Sitglitz endorses significant debt write-downs, raising both taxes and spending by the same amount (Stiglitz blames a hidden agenda of downsizing government for the latter), and banning excessive trade deficits. Instead, he believes the Eurozone will further unravel. He also criticizes the European Common Bank for 'resisting quantative easing,' yet argues that the most important effect of QE has been contributing to 'growing inequality,' which he says hurts growth
Bottom-Line, per Stiglitz: The Euro has failed to achieve either of its two principal goals of prosperity and political integration. European countries now view each other with distrust and anger.
This is a superb treatment of the subject and an advanced course for most aspects of contemporary economics. What he teaches us applies far beyond the Euro situation.
For content the book deserves five stars plus But as an author Stiglitz acknowledges he requires assistance with his writing. So readers have to pay attention.
Of course two generations were spoilt by Paul Samuelson, who not only was a leading economists but an extraordinary explainer of complicated issues. One could do well on advanced exams in economics by just rereading Samuelson's relevant chapter in his introductory book.
Nobel prize winner Joseph E. Stiglitz successfully dismantles the conventional consensus about what ails Europe, demolishing the champions of austerity while offering a cure that can rescue the continent--and perhaps the world--from the next crisis. It is recommended reading for the next President of the United States and for the European Central Bank.
E. Ray Canterbery, author of The Rise and Fall of Global Austerity
It is extremely accurate and helpful to understand all the alternatives facing the international community, willing to act to overcome the shortcomings of a monetary system developed without a fiscal coordination. A must read for all experts willing to update their expertise and all politicians willing to correct the serious mistakes made, so far, in trying to promote the gradual unification of Europe.
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