The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an inv
| 商家名称 |
信用等级 |
购买信息 |
订购本书 |
|
|
 |
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto) |
 |
|
|
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto) |
|
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”
—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”
—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”
—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”
—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”
—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”
—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”
—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”
—The New York Times Book ReviewFrom the Hardcover edition.
网友对The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto)的评论
去年的这个月我读了这本书的电子版.当时我被这本书作者的观点打动,同时被作者的文字艺术所吸引.处于对作者的兴趣和尊重,我又读了fooled by the randomness, 一本同样有启发性和幽默感的书.这本黑天鹅让我们可以从新的角度来看我们这个世界.这个角度很新颖,也很深刻.同时,taleb在书中引用许多大师的作品来阐述自己的观点,而这些大师的作品也是很值得阅读的.因此一年后的今天,我决定再读一遍这本书.并且希望通过再次阅读这书,我能有新的发现.
经典书，可以和中文版对照看。
很喜欢这个版的封皮 发过来却很脏 多少也是100多块钱的书 怎么可以这样对待它呢 真是失望啊
书有些旧，不知道是不是退回去的书，亚马逊确实应该将每本书都塑封，保证书的完整。
看了这本书后，我不再相信预测、计划、模型、计量经济等等。
这本书虽然英文相对晦涩，但绝对值得你去细细阅读它。这本书将会让你对这世界万物有一个更全面的认识，同时也会让你感受到大自然的伟大。
企鹅的这个行为经济学系列很不错～ 不过每一本啃下来确实不容易。
怎么能想的全面，考虑的全面？要不要随大流？看看此书原版~~
中心思想明确，英文版，进度比较慢，不过可以学习英语
本来还以为是正版呢，买来后才发现跟想象的差了好远呀，书页都是黄的，但起码内容和印刷都还行，忍了。
喜欢The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto)请与您的朋友分享,由于版权原因，读书人网不提供图书下载服务
