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50 Psychological Experiments for Investors |  |
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50 Psychological Experiments for Investors | |
Paul Stefansson
Executive Director, UBS AG
Why are investors sometimes their own worst enemies? As this eminently readable book shows, all sorts of biases affect investors’ judgments, ranging from sheer ignorance and emotions to overconfidence or aversions, from selected short-term memory to undue generalizations. Building on the expanding literature in behavioral economics, the experiments reported here shed a useful, often funny, light on the implicit rules investors use to form their judgment and decisions. This book will definitely help you make wiser investment decisions!
Christian Koenig
Director, Asian Center, ESSEC Business School
Mickäel Mangot provides a fantastic tool that individuals as well as financial advisors can immediately apply to their portfolios. This book’s success lies in its superbly easy-to-use format: Mangot demystifies the technical terminology of behavioral finance by linking everyday behavior to the world of investing. So while the human examples are enjoyable and interesting (you’ll chuckle when you recognize these traits in yourself), he deftly explains how these very human biases lie at the root of 57 simple but very damaging investment mistakes. Most importantly, each conclusion provides a concise, sensible summary to help you correct—and improve—your investment decisions.
Philippa Huckle
CEO, The Philippa Huckle Group
This is an insightful book that forces one to question one’s own financial behavior. 50 Psychological Experiments for Investors covers different topics such as savings, equity investment and property investment. The portrait of the investor presented here is harsh but can be highly profitable for anyone who recognizes that he or she is vulnerable to misjudgments and misguided emotions. A must-read for any self-questioning investor.
Jacques-Henri David
Vice Chairman Global Banking, Deutsche Bank
From the Inside Flap
Saving well is anything but an intuitive process. One must be capable of deciding how much to save each month and in what instruments to invest those savings. These are the basic decisions which determine the wealth of the individual, household, or family in the long-term. Reactions, either instinctive or bred by personal experience, do not always provide the golden rule for navigating the tricky waters of financial decisions. Arguments which seem to be a matter of common sense may in fact be folly. Emotions can lead to confused decisions or prevent wise choices. In the end, unconscious imitation and social comparison encourage the duplication of plans whose efficiency is far from sure.
But all is not necessarily lost. A confrontation of the opposing points of view of economics and psychology has given birth to a new area of research, called behavioral economics, which elucidates how people in the real world make their economic decisions. This dynamic new discipline was endorsed by the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to one of the discipline’s originators, Daniel Kahneman. Since its beginnings in the 1980s, it has highlighted clear differences between the economic and financial behavior of real individuals and what they would do if they were completely rational. An impressive volume of studies conducted worldwide now draws a clear picture of the investor and the personal faults that prevent him from performing.
In this book, a little over 50 experiments run by scientists on different psychological factors affecting investment decisions are presented. The most important questions are treated: allocation of income to savings, planning for retirement, choice between assets, selection of mutual funds, appetite for real estate, hesitancy to invest in stocks, gender differences, and so on. Mentioned too are anecdotal aspects of the problem, such as the Monday blues which take hold of the grumpy and overcautious side of the investor at the start of the week. These 50-odd experiments allow a better understanding of our financial decisions. They offer information both for investing wisely and for knowing ourselves better.
作者简介 Mickäel Mangot is Adjunct Professor at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. His works focus on behavioral finance and its applications for individual investors and professionals.
Mickäel has authored several books on the psychology of investors in financial markets. In France, his book Pyschologie de l’Investisseur et des Marchés Financiers was awarded the 2006 Turgot Prize for the best book in financial economics.
He conducts seminars and trainings for major financial companies in Paris, Geneva and Singapore, targeting private bankers, fund managers and traders. Mickäel also gives educational conferences to individual investors to help them monitor and improve their financial behavior. He contributes regularly to economic and financial newspapers providing insights into the psychology of investors in different market environments.
Mickäel earned his MBA and PhD in Economics from Essec Business School and the University of Paris Pantheon-La Sorbonne, respectively.
目录
Foreword
Chapter 1
A love of anecdotes
How we choose information on fallacious criteria
1. Why do you think you have to invest in the stock market when prices have skyrocketed?
Momentum bias
2. Why do you buy stocks when the market has gone up and bonds when it has gone down?
Momentum management
3. Why are you sure that everyone agrees with your view that the market is going to go up?
False consensus
4. Why does Google's success make you want to invest in high-tech?
The availability heuristic
5. Why has your stock portfolio only gained 5% this year when you are sure it has earned twice as much?
The confirmation bias
6. Why is it that on moving to the boonies you rent an overly expensive apartment?
Points of reference
Chapter 2
Hopeless at math!
How silly mathematical errors enter our financial decisions
7. Why do you play black at roulette when red has just come up four times in a row?
The gambler's fallacy
8. Why do you trust the mutual fund that had the best performance last year?
Belief in the "hot hand"
9. Why do young savers become rich seniors?
The under-estimation of compound interest
10. Why does inflation encourage selling the house and renting instead?
The money illusion
Chapter 3
All the eggs in a broken basket
How our view of risk leads us to poorly diversify investments
11. Why do you refuse to put foreign stocks in your portfolio?
Forgetting correlations
12. Why do young people buy Levi stock and older folk buy Hermès?
The bias of familiarity
13. Why is 90% of your portfolio in French stocks?
National bias
14. Why have you bought stock in that high-flying company in your area?
Local bias
15. Why do you own stocks in the company where you work?
Employer bias
16. Why does the industrial waste collection sector not attract investors?
Emotional reasoning
Chapter 4
For me, it's different!
How optimism and overconfidence encourage taking excessive risk
17. Why do you look more closely at the potential for growth than at the potential for loss in an investment?
Bias of optimism
18. Why do you think that you know precisely when the stock market will crash?
Overconfidence
19. Why, after a set-back, do you always consider mutual fund managers to be hapless?
Hindsight bias
20. Why do you place more orders when the market is soaring?
The self-attribution bias
21. Why do you take more risk after raking in unexpected gains?
The "house money" effect
22. Why do you place so many orders on the Exchange each year?
Excessive trading
23. Why do you earn less on the market when you place orders on the Internet?
Illusion of control on the Internet
Chapter 5
An obsession:
Never regret anything
How the loss and regret aversions inhibit our behaviour
24. Why do you try to sell your house at an unrealistic price when real estate goes down?
Loss aversion
25. Why do you keep your losing securities longer than those that are earning?
The deposition effect
26. Why do you sell all your losing stocks on the same day?
Hedonic editing
27. Why do you re-invest in your losing stocks?
The committed expenditure effect
28. Why do you never buy back securities on which you have lost money?
The "snake bite" effect
29. Why do you not like to sell stocks which have just gone down?
Regret aversion
30. Why do you change nothing in the portfolio that your grandmother has left you?
Status quo bias
31. Why do you keep stocks that you would not buy in your portfolio?
The endowment effect
Chapter 6
When Mars and Venus decide to invest
How men and women consider risk and confidence differently in their financial decisions
32. Why does Mars invest more than Venus?
Gender differences and attitude toward risk
33. Why does Mars prefer stocks and Venus bonds?
Gender differences and investment choices
34. Why does Mars change his portfolio more often than Venus?
Gender differences and confidence
35. Why do Venus and Mars draw closer with time?
Gender differences and experience in financial markets
Chapter 7
Investing by the Sun
How climate and the calendar influence our investing mood
36. Why do the markets go up when it is nice out?
The Sun effect
37. Why do you have to look up before buying stocks?
The lunar effect
38. Why do markets decline on Monday?
Blue-Monday
39. Why do you too buy stocks just before Christmas?
The holiday effect
Chapter 8
Inborn or acquired?
How our financial behaviour depends on education and personal characteristics.
40. Why are those that do their Christmas shopping at the last minute poorer than others?
Individual preferences and investing behaviour
41. Why would it be a good thing if your children were trained in the handling of their piggy banks?
Financial education at school
42. Why would you gain if you took financial training in your company?
Financial education of adults
Chapter 9
Not sillier than your neighbour
How social relationships affect our financial decisions
43. Why does going to church encourage the buying of shares?
Social interactions
44. Why does your colleague become your top financial advisor in matters of saving for retirement?
Social norms
45. Why do investment clubs favour consensual investments?
Groupthink
46. Why do investment clubs take more risks than individual investors?
Polarization toward risk
Chapter 10
Packaging counts too
How the presentation of financial products changes our choices
47. Why does the distribution in your portfolio depend on the funds offered to you?
Naïve diversification
48. Why do you never choose the safest or the most risky mutual funds?
Aversion to extremes
49. Why does your financial advisor offer you only a portion of his assortment of investments?
The difficulty of choosing
50. Why does automatic enrolment increase participation of employees in retirement savings plans?
Omission bias
51. Why is it necessary to ask an exorbitant price when you sell your home?
Anchoring
52. Why does checking the performance of your investments everyday encourage the buying of bonds?
Myopic loss aversion
Bonus Chapter
Real estate: more than an investment
How purchasing real estate affects life beyond financial performance
53. Do home owners change residence more often than renters?
Property and mobility
54. Are property owners employed at a higher rate than renters?
Home ownership and employment
55. Do owners live more happily than renters?
Ownership and psychological well-being
56. Are owners in better shape than renters?
Ownership and physical health
57. Are children of owners more successful than those of renters?
Homeownership and the behaviour of children
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