Future of Energy能源的未来
1.Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a privilege and an honor to participate in the second season of conversations hosted by the prestigious Harvard University Center for the Environment, and to share my thoughts on the subject of the "Future of Energy." Let me begin this afternoon by thanking Harvard University for its kind invitation, and the Center staff for their warm hospitality during my visit to Cambridge.
1、女士们，先生们，大家下午好。能参加由久负盛名的哈佛大学环境中心主办的第二届论坛，并与大家分享我对“能源的未来”这一主题的一些看法，是我莫大的荣幸。在我开始今天下午的演讲之前，我想先对哈佛大学表示感谢。感谢哈佛对我的盛情邀约，感谢哈佛大学环境中心的工作人员在我访问坎布里奇美国大学城时给予我的热情款待。
2.This affteron, I want to share with you my views on our energy future, to examine some of the most critical factors and trends we need to consider when addressing energy issues.
2、今天下午，我愿与你们一起分享我对能源未来的一些看法，考查我们在处理能源问题时需要考虑的一些至关重要的影响因素和发展趋势。
3.The decisions about energy taken here in the US, back in Saudi Arabia, and indeed across the globe are important, because energy touches every aspect of modern civilization and pervades our daily lives. Access to an economic and reliable supply of energy is essential to achieving greater prosperity and eradicating poverty, to raising living standards in our communities, and to fueling economic and social development at home and abroad. At the same time, we have a responsibility to both our current and future generations when it comes to the protection and preservation of precious natural ecosystems, meaning that decisions about energy, economic expansion and the environment must go hand-in-hand. That is both our challenge, and our opportunity.
3、现如今能源问题涉及现代文明的方方面面，并渗透进我们的日常生活中，因此美国所作的有关能源的决策，对沙特阿拉伯乃至全球都很重要。得到经济而可靠的能源供应，对实现更大程度的繁荣、消除贫困、提高我们社会的生活水平以及推动国内外经济和社会的发展，都起到至关重要的作用。同时，在保护和维护珍贵的自然生态方面，我们应对自己和后代负责，这意味着能源决策必须同经济发展和环境保护相结合。这对我们来说既是机遇，又是挑战。
4.Let me begin with a brief look at today's energy picture, and the factors that those of us in the energy industry grapple with every day, that influence our mental models about energy's future, and provide the basis for our strategies.
4、首先，让我给大家简要说说我们目前的能源状况，以及在能源严业工作的人们每天都在努力解决的问题，这些问题影响着我们对能源未来的思考模式，也为我们制定未来的发展战略提供了参考依据。
5.The world currently consumes around 210 million barrels per day of oil equivalent with most of that supplied by a fairly limited number of sources; a reality that applies equally to the United States. Oil meets nearly 40 percent of the world's total energy needs, coal and natural gas each account for just under a quarter of total demand, hydropower and other altematives for 8 percent, and nuclear energy for 6 percent of total energy supplies. In fact, for all of the attention garnered by renewables and alternative energy sources, fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas still account for a whopping 85 percent of total global energy supplies. In addition, because the number of currently viable energy sources is so limited, we have to recognize that the options that are realistically available to policymakers, producers and consumers are also relatively limited. Of course, the flexibility the world may have in terms of choices is also a function of the time horizon under consideration, and in future there may indeed be more options on the table.
5、目前，世界每天大约消耗相当于2.1亿桶石油的能源，其中大部分能源都是由相当有限的资源来供应的，而美国也同样面对这样的现实。在世界的总能源需求中，石油只能满足40%，而煤和天然气各占不到四分之一，水电和其他的替代能源共占8%，核能源占6%。事实上，尽管可再生能源和替代能源己引起我们的高度关注，但是矿物燃料，如煤、石油和天然气，在全球总能源供应中的占有率仍高达85%。此外，由于目前可以维持使用的能源如此有限，我们也不得不意识到这一点:真正可供决策者、生产者和消费者选择的能源也是相对有限的。当然，世界在选择方面所具有的灵活性也需要考虑时间跨度，而且将来我们可能会拥有更多选择。
6.We must also remember that each sector of energy use has its own source dynamics. For example, when it comes to power generation, there are a number of sources which contribute substantially. According to the US Department of Energy, the American power generation sector draws upon coal for about half of its energy needs, with gas and nuclear each supplying about 19 percent of demand, and hydro electricity accounting for another 7 percent. Oil contributes a modest 3 percent to this country's power generation pie, and the remaining 2 percent of demand is met through renewables other than hydro. In contrast to this relative diversity of sources in the power generation sector, oil currently supplies an overwhelming 97 percent of the transportation sector's energy needs, with the rest coming from compressed gas, bio-fuels and other minor sources.
6、我们也必须记住，每个部门的能源消耗都有它自己的资源动力。以发电为例，有多种能源可用来大量发电。据美国能源部透露，美国电力部门的能源需求中煤大约占了一半，天然气和核各占约19%，水利电力占7%。石油只占该国电力部门能源需求总量的3%，剩余的2%是通过除水力以外的其他可再生能源来满足的。与电力部门相对多样化的能源相反，当前交通部门的能源需求有高达97%是靠石油来满足的，剩下的是来自压缩天然气、生物燃料和其他辅助能源。
7.There are distinct reasons why oil is the fuel of choice in the all-important transportation sector: oil technologies have been proven over almost 150 years,and continue to develop; its supplies are abundant; it has an extensive and highly developed infrastructure in every corner of the world encompassing exploration, production, processing, shipping, storage and distribution; it has a very high energy density; and it is readily portable.
7、为何石油成了至关重要的交通业的燃料选择呢?原因显而易见:石油工业己经有差不多150年的历史，并持续发展;它的供应很充足;它广泛而高度完善的基础设施，包括勘探、生产、加工、运输、储存和分配，遍布世界各个角落;它的能源密度高，便于运输。
8.These factors are important to remember as we look at and endeavor to shape future patterns of energy production and consumption, as well as tackle environmental issues both in this country and around the world.
8、了解这些因素，对我们展望并努力建立未来能源的生产和消费模式，以及解决美国乃至全世界的环境问题至关重要。
9.Tuming to the future, we find a variety of scenarios about where energy use is heading. These scenarios are shaped by multiple drivers, ranging from global economic conditions and their impact on energy demand, growth in energy supplies, the state of alternatives and their associated technologies, the comparative economics of different energy sources, and assumptions about environmental policies. 'rhe supply and demand projections which these scenarios produce vary widely-a fact which makes my job considerably more difficult when it comes to business planning and investment decisions! However, the one thing all these estimates agree upon is that the next quarter-century will witness tremendous growth in demand for energy. For example, the Energy Information
Administration of the Department of Energy, predicts that over the next 25 years,global energy use will increase an average of 2 percent annually-meaning that total energy consumption in 2030 will be roughly 70 percent greater than today's level.
9、面向未来，我们制订出若干应对能源利用趋势的方案。这些方案受多种因素的影响，包括全球经济形势及其对能源的需求、能源供应的增长、替代能源的状况及其相关技术、不同能源的经济比较，以及对环境政策的预测。根据这些方案所做的供求设计与实际情况大相径庭以至于要做商业规划和投资决策的时候，这一事实给我的工作带来了不小的麻烦。然而，在所有这些估计中有一点是一致的，那就是，未来的25年里，我们将见证能源需求的大幅度增长。例如，据美国能源部下属的能源情报署预测，25年以后，全球的能源消耗将以平均每年2%的速度增长—这就意味着到2030年，能源的总消耗量会比现在大约增加70 %。
10.In other words, over the next several decades my industry colleagues and I must substantially increase the amount of energy available to consumers around the world.
10、换句话说，在今后的几十年里，我和同事们必须在很大程度上增加可供全球消费者使用的能源供应量。
11.Can we do it? Yes, without a doubt, as there is more than enough oil remaining to meet the world's needs for many decades to come. Why am I so confident? Because our industry has devoted tremendous efforts and resources to understand the earth's petroleum resource base, and based on these efforts, we know that the world's remaining petroleum resources are vast. Currently proven conventional oil reserves are approximately 1.2 trillion barrels, while recoverable non-conventional reserves-heavy oils and tar sands-are at least 1.5 trillion barrels. Upstream experts believe that with on-going advances in technology, we will find an additional 2 trillion barrels from yet-to-be-discovered fields and tbrough increased recovery rates in existing fields. Added together, we are looking at more than 4.5 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil and that translates into more than 140 years ,of supply at today's current rate of consumption. To put it another way, to date the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional and non-conventional producible potential.
11、我们能做到吗?是的，毫无疑问，因为地球上还有非常充足的石油储量，可以满足世界未来几十年的需求。为何我如此自信?因为我们已经投入了大量的精力和资源，探测地球的石油资源储备地。基于这些努力，我们了解到，世界现存的石油储量是巨大的。目前被证实的常规石浪储量约1.2万亿桶，而可回收的非常规能源储备—重油和油砂—至少有1.5万亿桶。一些上游企业的专家们认为，随着科学技术的不断进步，我们将会从尚未发现的能源领域，以及通过提高现有能源回收率的方式，再找到2万亿桶石油。加在一起，我们将看到一个远大于4.5万亿桶的可开采石油量，按照目前的消耗速度，这可以供我们用140多年。也就是说，迄今为止，全世界消耗的石油量仅是常规和非常规石油可生产潜力的18%。
12.While technology holds much promise for enhancing our ability to find,develop and deliver these resources to consumers, I believe it also bas an important role to play when it comes to protecting the planet. We all recognize that mitigating the negative impact that energy production and consumption has on the natural environment is becoming increasingly important, and represents another vital imperative for suppliers, consumers, policymakers, regulators and other stakeholders. Whatever professional role or discipline, or the position we occupy along the energy value chain, each of us has a part to play in lightening energy's environmental footprint, and in making it possible to balance our responsibilities toward the environment with our commitments to the economic prosperity and well-being of our communities and their inhabitants. Achieving that balance is among the most significant challenges facing our planet today, and underscores not only the work of the Harvard University Center for the Environment, but also my remarks this afternoon.
12、随着科技使我们发现、开发这些资源并将其提供给消费者的能力的进一步提高，我认为，对于保护地球，科技也同样扮演着重要角色。我们都承认，减轻能源生产和消费对自然环境产生的负面影响正变得日益重要，这也成为供应商、消费者、决策者、管理者和其他利益相关者面临的又一个当务之急。不论我们的职业角色或者职业规则是什么，也不论我们处在能源价值链上的什么位置，我们每个人都应发挥自己的作用，加快能源利用的环保进程;同时，我们对自然环境负有义不容辞的责任，我们应尽量平衡环境保护与经济繁荣和社会安定之间的关系。达到这种平衡是我们这个星球现在面临的最大挑战之一，这不仅是哈佛大学环境中心的工作核心，也是我今天下午讲话的重点。
13.So, where do we go from here? Well when it comes to energy, the immediate future looks a lot like the recent past, with hydrocarbons cont:inuing to account for the lion's share of energy supplies. In fact, fossil fuels will remain the bedrock of energy supplies for both the US and the wider world for many more decades to come, through the use of oil in transportation via significantly improved conventional engines, hybrids or eventually in hydrogen production; and with coal and gas when it comes to electric power generation.
13、那么，我们该怎么办呢?谈到能源问题，我们对将来的预测就像我们过去对今天的预测一样—碳氢化合物将继续在能源供应中占绝大部分。事实上，化石燃料仍将是美国和大多数国家今后几十年中所运用的基本能源，可以通过改良后的传统发动机、混合动力机车等燃油交通工具进行利用，还可以和煤、天然气一起用来发电。
14.The EIA also projects that renewables, including hydroelectricity, will be generating more energy over the next quarter-century. But even with anticipated technical advancements, that source's share of global energy supplies will only increase by one percent over the next 25 years, from 8 percent of total supplies at present to 9 percent by 2030. When we look at altemative energy, we find that sources such as ethanol are beginning to play a growing role, while hydrogen and fuel cells still have some way to go before they are viable in the market, and face a number of technical and commercial obstacles that need to be resolved.
14、据美国能源情报署预计，包括水电在内的可再生能源，将在未来25年里产生更多的能源。但是，即使科技进步如我们预想的那样，在未来的25年里，可再生能源占全球能源供应量的份额也只会增加1个百分点，从目前总供应量的8%，增加到2030年的9%。当我们关注替代能源时，我们会发现，像乙醇这类能源将会发挥越来越大的作用，而氢和燃料电池这类能源，要进入市场仍有一段很长的路要走，并面临着一系列尚待解决的技术上和商业上的阻碍。
15.But the escalating demand for energy that I outlined earlier means that we will need contributions from all sources, whether traditional hydrocarbons or emerging sources like bio-fuels and hydrogen. As an oil man, I not only welcome additional contributions from altemative fuels, but I believe these contributions will be essential if we are to meet the growing needs of global energy consumers.
15、但是我在前面所列出的能源需求的日益增加，意味着我们将需要利用所有形式的能源，不论是传统的碳氢化合物能源，还是像生物燃料和氢这样的新兴能源。作为一名石油商，我不仅希望有更多的替代能源出现，我还认为，如果我们要满足全球消费者日益增长的能源需求，这些替代能源将是至关重要的。
16.However, this is a process that will take time, and because of the complex,multifaceted nature of the obstacles that altematives still face, this is not a transformation that can be rushed. We also have to recognize that the speed of adoption will vary considerably around the world, given each nation or region's relative resource base, economic model, level of energy intensity, degree of technological sophistication, and sunk infrastructure costs. Just as different countries have vastly different levels of things like mobile telephone penetration or automobile ownership, in my judgment various markets around the globe will adopt and adapt alternative fuels at rates, and only slowly begin to converge over time.
16、然而，鉴于替代能源仍面临着复杂的、多方面的困难，这个过程将需要一定时间，且这一转变不能一毗而就。此外，我们还必须认识到，由于每个国家或地区的相对资源基础、经济模式、能源密集程度、科技进步水平、基础设施费用下调额度都不一样，世界各地接受替代能源的速度将会千差万别。恰如不同国家拥有不同水平的事物—如移动电话普及率或汽车的所有权一样。所以根据我的判断，世界不同市场接受和适应替代燃料的速度将会有显著的差异，只有时间能使它们步伐一致。
17.Because we face a future in which we will need energy derived from all sources, and since it will take some time for alternative energy to expand its contributions to global supplies, I think we also need to look more closely at the major sources of our energy supplies for years to come. In short, the sources that will make the most important contributions to the energy mix in the near-to medium-term must receive a suitably high priority when it comes to research and the development of technological enhancements. If we ignore the energy supplies that will matter most over the coming decades-and yes, oil is a prime example-we may inadvertently undermine both the environmental and economic goals this nation and the global community have set for themselves.
17、由于未来要求我们从各种资源中寻求能源潜力，且替代能源要想发展成为全球能源供应的支柱，仍需要一段时间，我认为，我们需要更加仔细地研究今后几年主要的能源供应源。简而言之，这些能源供应源，将是近期直到本世纪中期能源结构中最重要的组成部分，在我们对新能源进行研究和技术改进过程中，它们必定会处于一定的优势地位。如果我们忽视了将在未来几十年里至关重要的能源供应问题—是的，石油就是一个极好的例子——我们可能会无意中破坏各个国家和国际社会为自己所确定的环境和经济的发展目标。
18.In order to protect the environment, to eliminate energy poverty in the developing world, and to enable men and women around the globe to realize their asprrations for better lives in the future, I believe we must work simultaneously on both altematives and on developing cleaner and more efficient hydrocarbon technologies. Even as we press forward on altematives, let us also direct our efforts toward finding additional reserves of oil and gas, and invest in the production, processing and transportation systems needed to deliver those resources to customers and consumers. In other words, We must recognize that our energy future depends on pursuing a dual track: the gains we make in the altematives laboratory or on the test track as well as advances at the drilling rig, in the refinery and along the automobile production line. In time, renewables and altematives can and will play a more substantial role in meeting the world's energy needs. But for the foreseeable future, our energy prospects hinge largely on the ability of hydrocarbon suppliers to produce more barrels of oil and cubic feet of gas in a reliable and timely manner, on the steps that consumers take to conserve that energy and use it wisely and cleanly, and on the efficiency of the thousands upon thousands of applications and end-uses to which that energy is directed.
18、为了保护环境，解决发展中国家的能源匾乏问题，并让全世界的人们都实现自己对未来更美好生活的殷切愿望，我认为，我们必须在寻找替代能源的同时，也为开发清洁而高效的碳氢化合物技术而不懈努力。即使在极力寻找替代能源时，我们也要努力寻找更多的石油和天然气，在它们的生产、加工和运输体系方面进行大量投资，以便给客户及消费者提供他们所需要的能源。换言之，我们必须认识到，我们的能源前景取决于“两手抓”:我们既要抓替代能源研究与试验上的成果，又要注意石油钻探设备上的改进;既要抓炼油厂产量，又要注意汽车生产的节能环保。随着时间的推移，可再生能源和替代能源不仅能够，而且将会在满足全球能源需求方面发挥更重要的作用。但在可预见的将来，我们的能源前景在很大程度上取决于油气供应商以一种可靠而及时的方式，生产出更多的石油和天然气的能力;取决于消费者采取节能措施，并且明智而清洁地利用能源;也取决于能源在成千上万的应用与最终用途上产生的效能。
19.Ladies and gentlemen, as I said at the outset, when it comes to energy we face both tremendous challenges and a wide range of opportunities. No company or country, no matter how large or capable, can face those challenges or seize those opportunities by working in isolation. Rather, meeting the world's growing demand for energy while protecting the planet requires a pragmatic approach which integrates both the concems and the contributions of producers, consumers,and all those who impact and influence energy policy.
19、女士们，先生们，正如我在开始时所说的，针对能源问题，我们既面临巨大的挑战，也面临广泛的机会。任何公司或国家，无论它多么庞大多么强大，都不可能完全独立地面对挑战，或抓住机遇。相反，要满足全球不断增长的能源需求，并保护地球家园，需要一个务实的解决方法，这个方法要集中体现生产者、消费者，以及所有与能源政策有关的人们的利益。
20.Let us therefore press ahead with multifaceted and concurrent efforts to bring various alternatives to the market, work to develop cleaner and more efficient applications for existing hydrocarbon sources, and endeavor to reduce the environmental footprint of global energy use. By aligning our eafforts and building on a firm foundation of resources, reliability and partnership, I believe we can succeed in achieving the sustainable energy future this great country and the wider world deserves.
20、因此，让我们继续进行多方面的共同努力，为市场开发出不同的替代能源，找到更清洁和更高效的油气资源利用途径，努力减少全球能源利用对自然环境造成的破坏。通过我们协调一致的努力，奠定坚实的能源基础，建立可靠的伙伴关系，我相信，针对未来的能源利用，我们能够成功地实现可持续发展，这是这个伟大的国家和更广泛的国际社会应该共同追求的目标。
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