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The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business |  |
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The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business | |
As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.
网友对The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business的评论
This should be required reading for the gaming industry, which I always thought was shortsighted for banning, rather than celebrating, card counters. If I was in the gaming industry, I'd offer card counting classes and plaster successful card counters on billboards. Virtually everyone lacks the discipline and talent to succeed, but we'd lose a lot of money proving that to ourselves chasing our pots of gold.
But the book is about applying the basic principles that it takes to succeed in the closed, controlled universe of blackjack- math and discipline to stick with it through the emotional ups and downs that comes with normal variation- to business and ordinary life. It isn't a cheesy, step-by-step cookbook. Ma just provides an example or two and it is up to you to figure out how it applies to whatever it is you are doing. Everyone can benefit from this book.
Fantastic write up. Thoroughly analyzed different scenarios, just love it. I have never underlined so many points in any other book before.
Each chapter is a gem. Ma weaves so many different areas together to tell such a compelling story that you end up learning something on every page.
Politics, sports, gambling, finance -- he connects them in a delicate yet thorough way, and he doesn't just analyze existing or common stories, he interviews all the key players, researchers, managers, gamblers, and traders to uncover hidden depths.
The chapter on the hot hand is the single best discussion of the topic I have ever seen, and it is a topic that has seen a lot of ink spilled. And his view on it, coming from what you might think is just a pure analytical, mathematical perspective, is at the same time surprising and alluring. If you read nothing else from the book but the hot hand chapter, it is already worth the money.
And every chapter is like that. I have read some academic intuition research and general intuition studies, and Ma's chapter on intuition is the most insightful thing about it I have ever read.
I don't want to tell you his conclusions about the hot hand and intuition, because I wouldn't have wanted to know them before I read it, but it is worth reading and enjoying.
Ma has a creative mind and a unique approach to problems that is calmly analytical, and he has the same measured approach to emotions, neither vilifying nor worshiping them, but acknowledging them as an input to be weighed and analyzed.
His blackjack exploits introduce the chapters and are not only thrilling to read but also help plant an image in your mind about the particular point being made. Unlike many other business books, you will actually remember the lessons and suggestions here, because they are expressed in such a holistic and visual way.
Excellent book.
There are two types of books you can read about business statistics: those that describe the science and those that describe the application. The House Advantage is fundamentally about the later. For a couple of years now I've been trying to implement a data driven culture at my company. Getting to the data is the easy part for many, understanding what to do with it is the hard part. Some of the mistakes we make are pure science (looking at averages rather than distributions) but most of them are about application.
The House Advantage is primarily about the subtlety of using statistics to drive decisions. Through many examples from his days as a professional card counter and sports statistician Jeff shows practical examples of where statistics can be used in the wrong way even with the best of intentions. What THA does is layout a framework for how to approach decision making through statistics. While the book is not focused on specific business examples, it's a small leap to understand how to apply the ones Jeff outlines.
As an example, consider analyzing customer churn rates in a month to month service. When doing so, one needs to understand the statistical distribution of how long customers stay with you and why they decide to leave. If you pull all your churn rate data and analyze it you might determine that customers on average stay with your service 4.6 months. But is there omission bias here? What about customers that haven't left yet? Perhaps you just added a feature that would increase retention 2x but you're only 2 weeks into offering that feature.
This kind of scenario and the application based thinking is what this book is about. It's meant to be consumed whole in the same way that statistics are meant to be consumed in context. For anyone serious about using statistics in the business the right way, this is a thoughtful primer to read before you wade into the data.
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